Kuro5hin.org: technology and culture, from the trenches
create account | help/FAQ | contact | links | search | IRC | site news
[ Everything | Diaries | Technology | Science | Culture | Politics | Media | News | Internet | Op-Ed | Fiction | Meta | MLP ]
We need your support: buy an ad | premium membership

[P]
Russia did the right thing in Georgia

By sausalito in Politics
Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 06:29:43 PM EST
Tags: armchair political scientist, politics, war, incompetent, pontificating nullo (all tags)
Politics

So the first analyses of the Russia-Georgia tussle over South Ossetia are being published.

Don't be fooled by the Western - especially French and German - media consensus (for example, this article on the ever dumb Times screaming OMG Russian invasion!): this time the Guardian's view that this was a Georgian aggressive gamble is absolutely correct.

According to almost all independent reporters, the operations were kickstarted by the Georgians launching a massive co-ordinated attack that started with artillery shelling and aerial bombing of the independentist militias positions around Tskhinvali at 1:50 of Friday morning, a few hours after cease-fire talks had broken down (see this excellent timeline of the events - in French). Before that there had been only a few weeks of minor border skirmishes. You don't start such an operation without weeks of planning, do you?


At the start of the hostilities it looks like there was only a limited (around 1,000-strong) garrison of Russian "peacekeepers" in Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital and focus of the fighting. After the shelling subsided and the Georgian Army started the land stage of its offensive, there have been a few hours when the garrison risked being overrun (the Georgians jumped the gun slightly and announced to have quickly taken the capital, but that was not true and had to comically backpedal as it became clear they only besieged it). Russia had to intervene if it wanted to save its troops and avoid a major internal embarrassment.

So Georgia tried to catch Russia with its pants down and nab Tskhinvali while prime minister Putin was in Beijing for the opening ceremony of the Olympics and decisions depended on the newly-elected president Dmitri Medvedev, widely viewed as a weak Putin sockpuppet.

The Russian land counter-attack is being spearheaded by the 76th Airborne division (official name "76th Guards Chernigov Airborne Division"), which had been stationing in Northern Ossetia for some military exercises since mid-July (in reality it probably was there "just in case" - it's one of the few fully-professional divisions in the Russian Army and one of the most highly regarded ones).

Now airborne troops are highly-mobile and usually are the first to be committed to an attack to secure strategic targets (see D-Day and a bazillion other operations), they don't arrive days after combat started. It was clearly a stop-gap measure, waiting for the slower troops to roll in (it is happening now: regular troops are bolstering the counter-attack while paramilitaries will soon start the dirty job of mopping up any residual resistance by searching basement after basement and shooting whoever they find in there, including a good number of ethnic Georgians, one can safely assume). I think the tanks you see on television are just now crossing the border, they were not the ones that did the frontline fighting. There were hardly any in South Ossetia at the start of the escalation.

Also, look at who has got most to gain from an escalation: South Ossetia is already basically independent and allied with the Kremlin (there is even a funny independent government made up of ex-KGB operatives - by the way, Le Monde is another paper espousing pro-Georgia opinions), so there was nothing for Russia to gain in engaging the Georgian Army there. The majority of the inhabitants are ethnic Ossetians, who speak and write a language that is different from Georgian, have a long history of co-operating with Moscow and hold Russian passports. Also, Northern Ossetia is an official part of the CIS.

So the accusations of "attempted ethnic cleansing" by Russia's Interior Minister against Georgia are just an exaggeration at this stage, not a complete lie. Probably, by escalating the conflict Georgia was hoping to displace these people to Russia, where in any case they can travel to and work in, and leverage on ethnic Georgians to re-instate control on the breakaway province.

Georgia wanted to test Russia's mettle and now got more than it bargained for. The bombing of an air base just outside of Tblisi was a political signal saying that Russia considers the conflict as an all-out war. This was promptly understood by Abkhazia, which is starting its own little insurgency against Georgia.

What will happen next? Well, Georgia's air force has been crippled by the attacks on air bases, its largest port has been trashed, so really it is over for them. I believe they miscalculated and will lose Abkhazia, too.

The insane Georgian president is rumoured to be mulling over a call to arms for 100,000 reservists. What these reservists are going to fight with other than sticks and stones is not known. He will not do that, or he'll be president of a mound of smouldering ashes by next week. Now the UN and the US will intervene. There will be a cease-fire which the Russians will accept only once they have consolidated their positions and gained control over all their strategic objectives.

But looking at the long term it is clear that Georgia has shot itself in the foot. Now Russia has an excuse to have a large military presence in South Ossetia. More importantly, Georgia was courting NATO and a month ago the Minister for Territorial Integration (euphemism for Ministry for Kicking the Ossetians Bums out of Georgia) Yakobashvili said "that this [territorial conflict] was an European problem".

Yeah right, after the mess you irresponsibly made the EU and NATO will be very interested to have you as partner.

[edited at 22:00 CET, 9th August: The Exiled Online published an interesting article detailing the background of the US interests in Georgia (oil pipelines and all) as well as the PR campaign Georgia engaged in to gain the support of the US even in the face of its aggressive strategy]

Sponsors

Voxel dot net
o Managed Hosting
o VoxCAST Content Delivery
o Raw Infrastructure

Login

Related Links
o OMG Russian invasion!
o the Guardian's view that this was a Georgian aggressive gamble
o timeline of the events
o quickly taken the capital
o backpedal
o 76th Airborne division
o in Northern Ossetia for some military exercises since mid-July
o happening now
o independen t government made up of ex-KGB operatives
o "attempted ethnic cleansing"
o air base just outside of Tblisi
o own little insurgency against Georgia.
o largest port has been trashed
o interestin g article detailing the background of the US interests in Georgia (oil pipelines and all)
o Also by sausalito


Display: Sort:
Russia did the right thing in Georgia | 229 comments (197 topical, 32 editorial, 1 hidden)
'Did the right thing' (3.00 / 3) (#5)
by lostincali on Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 11:51:13 AM EST

I say that I agree with you, old boy, that slaughtering thousands of civilians was the right thing to do.

"The least busy day [at McDonalds] is Monday, and then sales increase throughout the week, I guess as enthusiasm for life dwindles."

This is a real head-scratcher. (2.25 / 4) (#21)
by lostincali on Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 01:28:15 PM EST

What would lead the Georgian government to think a full conventional confrontation with a vastly superior military power like Russia could work out well for Georgia? It boggles the mind that they would do something so stupid when evidence abounds lately that it is much more effective to harass major powers through proxy wars and guerrilla uprisings.

"The least busy day [at McDonalds] is Monday, and then sales increase throughout the week, I guess as enthusiasm for life dwindles."

McCain wants to send in troops (3.00 / 6) (#25)
by alba on Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 01:58:10 PM EST

Wall Street Journal

The Republican candidate also said [...] "The international community needs to establish a truly independent and neutral peace keeping force in South Ossetia."

This could get real big fun. Attentive readers might know that Chechnya borders Georgia and that the insurgency there was considered to be unwinable. Surprise, surpise, the Russians did win. Turned out that the birth rate of Chechnyans could not keep up with casualty rates.

Seems the losers of Iraq and Afghanistan want to get into real trouble this time.



bull fucking shit (3.00 / 4) (#30)
by balsamic vinigga on Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 03:07:27 PM EST

Russia has had since 1992 to acknowledge South Ossetia's independence. And guess what genius, they never have!

So they back Georgia diplomatically and then back South Ossetia militarily? Give me a fucking break. They saw a chance to invade Georgia and jumped on it. They probably woulda done it without an excuse if they coulda.

---
Please help fund a Filipino Horror Movie. It's been in limbo since 2007 due to lack of funding. Please donate today!

All I hear is: "DERP DERP DERP" (1.50 / 4) (#37)
by Peahippo on Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 08:00:33 PM EST

As in "DERP DERP DERP BIG EMPIRES ARE GOOD DERP DERP DERP REGIONAL INDEPENDENCE IS BAD DERP DERP DERP GOTTA SUPPORT THE SAME TYPE OF EMPIRE THAT *I* LIVE IN DERP DERP DERP."

The CIS and USA are unmanageable superregions and Empires. They must fall eventually. Rational folk would accept that and provide for the peaceful transition to secession. Since Communo-Capitalists are in charge in the USA and CIS -- by definition, they are NOT rational and peaceful people -- then that's just not gonna happen.

I say we donate $10 as a bounty to any Georgian that puts a rifle bullet through the head of any CIS soldier. Kills must be confirmed by video, which may be easily delivered as MP3s for our viewing pleasure.

And killing Imperial soldiers is a true pleasure. I really can't wait until we get around to it here in the pre-CWII USA.


Earl Browder interviewed in 1957 (2.00 / 3) (#49)
by sye on Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 07:23:17 AM EST

  Earl Browder , former head of the Communist Party in the United States, talks to a crone Philip Morris salesman about Nikita Khrushchev, Joseph Stalin, the Cold War, and American Communism.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
commentary - For a better sye@K5
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ripple me ~~> ~allthingsgo: gateway to Garden of Perfect Brightess in crypto-cash
rubbing u ~~> ~procrasti: getaway to HE'LL
Hey! at least he was in a stable relationship. - procrasti
Enter K5 via my lair

+1FP (none / 0) (#50)
by debillitatus on Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 12:14:32 PM EST

This is good stuff.

Damn you and your daily doubles, you brigand!

Russia still doesn't have a very good excuse (3.00 / 2) (#54)
by Delirium on Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 04:30:18 PM EST

Russia is interested mainly in clinging to its colonial empire, not in supporting people's right to self-determination. It surely doesn't treat South Ossetia similarly to how it treats other separatist regions in the Caucasus, like Chechnya, where it holds that the overriding principle is that national sovereignty of the legally recognized country must be respected.

I CAME (2.40 / 5) (#55)
by Ruston Rustov on Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 04:34:07 PM EST

Armchair quarterbacking by nerdly mid-level academics and finance laborers, from as far away from the trenches as is conceivably possible: it's a damn good life.

I had had incurable open sores all over my feet for sixteen years. The doctors were powerless to do anything about it. I told my psychiatrist that they were psychosomatic Stigmata - the Stigmata are the wounds Jesus suffered when he was nailed to the cross. Three days later all my sores were gone. -- Michael Crawford
Maybe tomorrow. -- Michael Crawford
As soon as she has her first period, fuck your daughter. -- localroger

If you want to argue (3.00 / 5) (#57)
by maniac1860 on Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 05:16:14 PM EST

that Russia's actions are understandable and don't actually portend a return to Soviet style military conquest then you might have a point. Trying to claim that what Russia is doing is right as opposed to merely neutral makes you either insane, retarded, or horrendously misinformed.

sausalito, ping-up (2.25 / 4) (#80)
by postDigital on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:37:40 AM EST

Your "The Exile" call was spot-on, and I was thinking about dissing you for it:

Mark Ames, "Getting Georgia's War On", The Nation, August 8, 2008

I have a hard time believing the bastard Ames is still alive and kicking. Several years ago, he did a series in "The eXile" about his engaging in many acts of unprotected sex with Moscow hookers. He was attempting to commit suicide by STDs as part of his Edward Limonov idolatry. What is very odd about his analysis in this instance is that he is no fan of Putin or Medvedev, and recently claimed his rag was shut-down because of his opposition to them. Ames' Limonov coverage was outstanding, BTW.

Brilliant Link



maybe (3.00 / 2) (#86)
by vivelame on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 09:00:00 AM EST

teh georgians shouldn't have poked the temperamental bear with that pointy stick.

Now it's party time!

Hey, did you notice that:

  1. the media, including the US ones, don't seem to shy away from showing casualties, this time? Awesome war porn, i guess ogrish.com was running low on novelties.
  2. teh georgians are teh stoooooopid (i expect the photoshop experts at powerline to be on their case any minute now! oh, wait, whatever).


--
Jonathan Simon: "When the autopsy of our democracy is performed, it is my belief that media silence will be given as the primary cause of death."
Yeah, like the Russians are going to go for it (none / 0) (#87)
by mirleid on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 09:31:03 AM EST

A Georgian National Security Council official said the document signed by Saakashvili called for an unconditional cease-fire, a non-use of force agreement, a withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgian territory, including the South Ossetia region, and provisions for international peacekeeping and mediation.

Source: Crap News Network

Chickens don't give milk
USA did the right thing in Cuba (1.20 / 5) (#92)
by circletimessquare on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 11:04:28 AM EST

So the first analyses of the USA-Cuba tussle over Russian Missiles are being published.

Don't be fooled by the Communist - especially Russian and Chinese - media consensus (for example, this article on the ever dumb Pravda screaming OMG American invasion!): this time the Shanghai Daily's view that this was a Cuban aggressive gamble is absolutely correct.

According to almost all independent reporters, the operations were kickstarted by the Cubans hosting a massive coterie of Russian missiles that are nuclear tipped and aimed at New York City and Washington DC around Havana at 1:50 of Friday morning, a few hours after disarmament talks had broken down (see this excellent timeline of the events - in Russian). Before that there had been only a few weeks of minor rhetorical skirmishes. You don't start such an operation without weeks of planning, do you?




The tigers of wrath are wiser than the horses of instruction.

dear gentle k5 readers (1.60 / 10) (#97)
by circletimessquare on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 11:46:08 AM EST

consider the words of sausalito above

now consider that anyone, such as sausalito, who speaks with such certainty about cause and effect, in either the region of the caucasus, or the balkans, is either

  1. incredibly uneducated on the history of the regions

  2. a flaming partisan prejudiced propagandizer

seeing as sausalito obviously has a good bit of knowledge and interest in the current conflict, he is obviously #2

to conclude that georgia is so clearly the aggressor here, without any acknowledgement of the history of georgia and russia and the caucasus, is obviously blind propaganda

please note: i don't support georgia. fuck georgia. my animosity is towards anyone, such as sausalito, who is extremely gung ho for one side or the other. so when you resist his propaganda, it should not be because you sympathize with the georgians. it is because you detest a flaming partisan, from either side, russian or georgian

the caucasus and the balkans are nothing but staging grounds for thousands of years of ethnic, imperial, religious, tribal, and nationalist backbiting

you are simply another obviously prejudiced backbiter in a long line of backbiters if you can say with resounding certainty that either russia or georgia are obviously the aggressors here

the only thing you should take away from sausalito's words above is simply this: sausalito must love the taste of putin's cock

because sausalito is most certainly smoking imperial russian dick like a heroin addict smokes the pipe

sausalito is a fucking partisan prick

now, again, to avoid the assholes who would accuse me of being a georgian apologist, which i am not: if saulsalito came in here with a story resoundingly on the side of the georgians, you should think THE EXACT SAME THING

avoid the partisan propagandizers, dear gentle k5 reader, avoid their zombified minds like the plague on this earth that they are

nationalism, religious bigotry: these sorts of things will be the death of this all. on display in the caucasus now is nothing more but imperial chest thumping partisan prickery, ON BOTH SIDES, of the highest order

disgusting and sickening. and much more blood will flow because of this partisan stupidity

The tigers of wrath are wiser than the horses of instruction.

Did anybody notice... (none / 0) (#115)
by mirleid on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:52:58 PM EST

...that google maps seems not to show any detail on Georgia anymore (towns, roads)? Is this an automatic feature for when there's a war on?

And maybe they know something we don't, the same seems to apply to Azerbaijan and Armenia...

Chickens don't give milk
I'm not sure (3.00 / 1) (#117)
by anonimouse on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:45:58 PM EST

...who did the right thing.

AFAICT, South Ossettia is meant to be part of Georgia, albeit with a large degree of independance due to the fact the majority of the population aren't truly Georgian.

Russia seems to have cunningly set the stage for this by issuing Russian passports to everyone in S. Ossetia so they could use the "protecting their people" excuse when the time came, and then did everything possible to ensure it would.

I don't think they planned it for precisely this weekend, but simply ensured that whenever it did happen, they would have a lot of tanks, soldiers and ships ready to "support" their "beleagured" people and soldiers.

I agree the Georgians were smoking crack when they decided to start shooting. They can't have been ignorant of the Russian agenda and basically should have played victim as much as possible to garner support.

Unless Russia has a change of heart, I suspect within 10 years (or maybe by next year) Georgia will mysteriously be part of Russia again.

I notice the Russians didn't fuck about with going to the UN for approval either.
~
Sleepyhel:
Relationships and friendships are complex beasts. There's nothing wrong with doing things a little differently.

not that i'm a big fan of the SEC (none / 0) (#118)
by d0ink on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:46:57 PM EST

but still i hope they stop fighting before football season gets underway.

Small corrections (3.00 / 4) (#124)
by Oblom on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:07:52 PM EST

Actually all thing got kickstarted by South Ossetian militias which for the few weeks before were shelling Georgian villages around. And also explosion of bus with 6 Georgian policeman's and some other random stuff. Before 8Th Georgia repeatedly ask peacekeepers and ossetians to calm things down, but nothing happened. So at 8Th Georgia started to shell positions of militia.(btw, at this stage there is like 2000-3000+ Georgians around tzhinvaly and around 1700 Russian peacekeepers + few thousends of ossetian militia. considering amount of Georgians it not looked like they planed ahead to capture anything with such a tiny force) According to journalists which was at this time at this area militia started to run away to north together with armored combat vehicles. At this point peacekeepers stopped them and took the vehicles from them and drove them towards Georgian positions. Not with so peacefull thoughts as you can guess.
Anyhow, by noon of august 8th better part (80% or so ) of South Ossetia (and 90% of Tzhinvali) was already in Georgian hands when Russian army appeared. Apparently, a few days before a bunch of Russian military helicopters, tanks, etc crossed into South Ossetia via tunnel and sat there quietly. And then appeared as magic). And the Russian division that counter attacked was 58 motorized. The 76Th airborne joined on the day after.
At the same time 9000 person Russian force arrived to Abkhazia (via conveniently repaired by Russian military railroad over last 2 month. couldn't be better) after which shelling of Georgian positions along Abkhazian border started by Abkhazian forces and Russian planes. And today Russian military offered to Georgian forces in this area (not even close to South Ossetia) to surrender, and then moved forward till cities Zugdidi and Senaki way deep into Georgia.
Right now it looks like it was mostly Russian plan (military silently sitting south ossetia, sudden repairs 2 month ago of railroad to Abkhazia) and Georgians unfortunately dragged away with it. Russian government hate Sakashvili cause he is trying to run away from mother Russia. You should see amounts of crap that is spilled upon him in Russian media
And Yakobashvili is right that this conflict is European problem. Remember the Sudetes ? How it's exactly different ? Russia made a sale-off of Russian passports to Abkhazian and South Ossetians and now they going to rescue their citezens. While at the same time they don't care about Russians in states like Turkmenistan and like it where they are oppressed. Or Russians about Baltic states where they are not citezens. Or quarter of million of Russian citezens in Israel which had to hide from Hezbollah rockets. So, this time is SO and Abkhazia and where Russia will go to protect it's citezens next ? Ukraine (especially east Ukraine and Crimea )? Baltic states ?

PS. In case you wonder where from i take details about military dispositions and stuff, well, i read some Russian military forum at which people get information first hand from their friends stationed at different parts of Russian military and a bunch of blogs of Russian journalists who got stack at this region over past few days.

Follow the money (3.00 / 2) (#126)
by Liar on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:42:16 PM EST

We cannot be pro-Russian in this case. At best, we can be pro-Ossetian or pro-Abkhazian. What does Russia stand to gain from this?

Georgia has been making overtures to actively become a member of NATO; this makes it difficult for Russia to exert influence over the region, so it's weakening Georgia every way it can especially by exploiting Georgia's ethnographic diversity; this would be the equivalent of Cuba augmenting a latino independence movement in Los Angeles, sending in weapons and peacekeepers to "prevent" war, while underhandedly escalating toward it. The Russian spies caught in 2006, the deportation of Georgians from Russia, and the recent issuance of passports sorta betrays their intention to not keep the peace.

So, we have Georgia on the one hand trying to protect its national sovereignty and we have Russia on the other hand undermining those attempts.

This is why the reports are mostly pro-Georgian.


I admit I'm a Liar. That's why you can trust me.
Nobody really knows (3.00 / 4) (#142)
by eavier on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 12:46:17 AM EST

whats going on over there because the disinformation coming out of both camps is intense.

My take is this:

I think the Georgian President is a future Hague visitor. The guy ordered volley after volley of high incendiary to be dropped on to South Ossetia's capital. To do that to what is technically, your countrymen, is none other than genocide plain and simple.

Secondly, having Russian 'Peacekeepers' as the neutral stabilising force in the South Ossetian capital, (techically remember, Georgia) was never a good idea in the first place. Its no news that Georgia and Russia haven't been the best of pals since the break up of the Soviet Union and the two countries have never liked each other's leaderships. Why was there never a multi-national UN force in there acting as a voice of reason from the start?

Thirdly, this has got to be giving western governments and oil companies, especially BP, the shits. If Russia takes the Georgian capital, then control of the BTC falls with it, taking away an important link to non Middle Eastern oil. Lack of that supply will only serve to push oil prices back up.

Fourth. The Bear is back. While he's been turning the taps on and off to Eastern Europe for the last couple of years and generally making 'we're back' noises, this is the first foriegn adventure Mother Russia has undertaken off its own soil since the end of the USSR. Invading a sovereign nation, even in a humanitarian guise, is a big deal. It makes waves and scares folks back into a cold war mentality that we'd happily left.

Finally, that whole area is a minefield of religious and cultural identities. I have no doubt that if it wasn't a) close to Europe & b) land that borders an important piece of oil real estate, nobody would care internationally apart from the poor souls there. Selfishly, it further makes the case that we should be rapidly transitioning to the best of our abilities from a oil economy to something more sustainable.

And if we did, then our concerns in such areas as Georgia and South Ossetia would hopefully be more altruistic toward the people living there and less tolerant of decisions made by its leaders.

Anyway, I'll be in Constanta on the 6th Sept. If its still going then, I'll let you know what the fireworks show is like in the distance.

Whatever you do, don't take it into your house. It's probably full of Greeks. - Vampire Zombie Abu Musab al Zarqawi

Ufology Doktor in da house

From russian press (none / 0) (#144)
by Oblom on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 01:40:45 AM EST

Journal Ogoniok, edition of July 28th - August 3d : Crossing Russian-Abkhazian border only increases out fears. All of sudden drivers are asked to keep right and convoy of 10 military tracks crosses into Abkhazia through border without stopping and checkpost. Now the mainly transport fuel for military equipment. The equipment itself moved in a couple of weeks ago. Military convoys and trains with tanks and armored vechicls were incoming into Abkhazia night and day. To hide something in Abkhazia is hard, so on internet forums there is descussions how many cars with tanks was moved in, to the Gaal region close to border with Georgia: 45 or 50. During last month were brough in such amount of fuel and weapons that can sustain peacekeepers for a few years of conflict. Peacekeeper colonel complains that he hadn't saw his wife for a month already cause he "spends on highway nights and days". "Something is going to happen, something will happen" says he while shaking his head.


I must disagree (2.83 / 6) (#155)
by jubal3 on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 10:01:52 AM EST

Not with your analysis of what happened, just with your conclusion.

First, the whole region of the Caucasus and the Blah-kans is a festering hellhole of ethnic squabbles and fights over what happened 300-500 years ago. Only the fucking Arabs could could match this level of stupidity...but I digress.

Georgia itself has been a part of Russia for a VERY long time, and is strategically located on the black sea. One look at a map should tell you why the Russians were loathe to let it go in the first place when the USSR broke up. (Remember your history, this was not a happy "go-your-own-way" kind of thing). In fact, a lot of us were wondering at the time if Russia would pull a full-on Chechnya there.

As to the Ossetia region, again, look at a map. It's a great big chunk out of the border region of Georgia, who rightfully is very concerned about defensible borders. The South Ossetia region is not just a chunk, but it's also on the wrong side of the Caucasus mountains (for the Georgians) which is a natural defensive barrier against the Russians. (Not that Georgia is going to hold off the Ruskies there, but they could sure as hell make it painful to get across those mountain passes)

Yes, the Georgians took one hell of a risk trying to take back the region. What they were hoping for was a fait accompli, after which they would try to get a better deal then they had, as well as a nice chunk of the territory BACK.

Who was right? Depends on your point of view I guess. The Russians had made the place pretty much a garrison state, and have been doing everything they could to make life tough on the Georgians since it broke away. -The idea of Russian "peace-keepers" is Orwellian in its self-contradiction.

Resurgent Russian ultra-nationalism fueled by oil money and rife with rule of Kleptocrats and former KGB types should make everyone nervous.
Add in the  piplines for a little extra tension all around and you have one hell of a mess on your hands no matter who's "side" you take.

I don't have an answer for any of this. It's a hell of a situation, and tbh, I'm not sure that in the long run, everyone wouldn't be better served by the larger states gobbling up the tiny ethnic shitholes and giving them semi-autonomy.

Georgia is large enough that it's a plausible nation-state, but to be an independent nation as anything other than Russia's bitch probably isn't likely in the long-run. I'm reminded of the U.S and Mexico's relationship, although the Russians have in my mind, a far more reasonable claim to make Geogia a client state than the U.S. did or does with Mexico.

Independence for a lot of these places just guarantees their people perenial poverty, since they don't have the resources to do anything but be poor, shitty places to live.

But it seems every fucking tribe in the region of more than 10,000 people just HAS to be independent, and it's hard to justify denying self-determination to anyone, no matter how stupid the reasons for it.

I tend toward the Russians about Georgia for two reasons: the first is geographic, second is the idea of Georgia trying to get NATO membership. If you don't understand why that freaked out the Russians, you don't have a clue about the situation.

Hell of a mess. As to who was "right" in the latest scuffle...I think it's hard to make a call. Neither party has clean hands.


***Never attribute to malice that which can be easily attributed to incompetence. -HB Owen***

factoids (none / 1) (#172)
by Timothy McVeigh s buttchip on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 03:00:57 PM EST

Some factoids I don't see here that I would've expected form dailyshin since you guys are so smart:

  • the Wired Magazine observations of US training and supplying with surplus equipment. Seems like US is always training soldiers somewhere (all those s. american militaries for example.) must be good for law & order i guess to make nation states more better at violence.
  • leading to .. Georgia is only 4.6 million population but they are 3rd in Iraq
  • Georgia was on schedule for NATO in maybe September. Seeing as how the hostilities are backing off that still will happen. Uh great. NATO and KGB 2.0 are eye to eye now.
  • The great .ge Internet blackout. I guess Slashdot covered that sort of. Without figuring out how they did it. Was it backhoes over fiber optic lines or what?

I don't have any original analysis. Just thought I'd bounce those observations over here.

I was looking over the maps of federated Russia. Surprising how farking large it still is. 3rd largest for resources.

Gentle reader, (none / 0) (#174)
by HANDEL on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 05:49:59 PM EST

I write to tell you of an unpalatable truth. It is my contention that your character is to be tested in the most extreme way imaginable.

Our leaders are about to fail us in the most final way possible. We are now presently lock-step in the endgame. Rest assured that you had no influence, the die had already been cast.

You will, in a timeline that may be only be on the scale of weeks or months, be faced with a stark choice, something with only the subtlety of two options and their direct consequence. Such a decision is far removed from the universal human condition of being party to the consequences of a million little personal and extrinsic decisions. It happens in one turn, on one flip of the coin.

Yours will be the choice between life or death. If you are astute, you will be, de facto, faced with that decision. With practical steps available to support either choice, most of them unappealing to say the least.

Those two options carry with them characteristically grim implications, but if a hierarchy of preference is to be established, the conclusions are not foregone;

"Die". For City-dwellers, this offers instant extinction. Head for the nearest, largest open space. Get up a tall building. Or make your own independent arrangements ahead of time. This is just a small subset of the options available to those willing to die, in the context of nuclear holocaust. Very little in the way of prior planning is required, and your imagination is the only limit.

"Live".

Friend, I must urge you to look above once more, to your previous option. You owe it to yourself and what family you may belong to, to consider what you would be surviving into. What survives, has to be worth it. The future you would occupy would be of the bleakest existence, and yet it would be irresponsible to detract from the essence of your decision. Yours would be future to shape, and it would be very much down to you to create it. You will never have a more direct opportunity to determine the future. Gone would be the division of labour, but labour itself would be far from absent. It would be the very definition of your - our - being, whether carolled by rifle-point or by the instinctive will to survive. A harsh life, of the utmost importance.

Look around you at where you live. It's not necessarily where you work, but where you live. The people you know there, the people you see. Who do you love? Who loves you? Do you love your country? That love will be tested deeply. If the forces of authority persist after the fact, you will be tasked with the reconstruction of your country, and as such, possibly the restoration of the very society which led to that point which begat its very foundations. And if they don't, reconstruction would be your - our - charge anyhow. It just would be, whether by cause or effect. Agrarian feudalism would be where we would be left at.

Know what you want from life. Know whether you wish to live, or to die, and act accordingly. Recognise the point at which your opinion counts, and when it will not.

Medvedev's done screwing around (none / 0) (#175)
by d0ink on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 06:01:46 PM EST

he's deployed the fat Russian version of Sam Fisher.  expect many dead guards to be hidden in shadows.

for those who like the armchair analysis (3.00 / 2) (#179)
by balsamic vinigga on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 10:39:32 PM EST

with some rational thought and fact checking here you go

---
Please help fund a Filipino Horror Movie. It's been in limbo since 2007 due to lack of funding. Please donate today!
Isn't it clear that this is the USA's fault? (2.50 / 4) (#190)
by A Bore on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 12:27:39 PM EST

It's amazing just how many conflicts can ultimately be traced back to the corrupt and imperialistic United States of America, and its decadent, deranged and psychopathic citizens that infest discussion boards like this.

Let's face it, all rational observers state the USA has, up until recently, been the major militaristic player in the world, interfering across the globe in nationstates' business to further its own military and economic ends. South Ossetia was to be no different from the CIA-instigated Orange revolution in Ukraine.

Here, good, calm men like Saakashvili have listened to, or been coerced by, the power mad ramblings of deranged American advisors, werewolves in a full moon obsessed by bloodlust and burning the world. Saakashvili has paid the price for this, having been forced into premature and unwinnable conflicts as a US proxy, through promises of NATO membership if he succeeded.

No matter where you look, the cancerous American influence is eating away at immune cells of rationality. All the troubles in the world can be traced back, like a fuse, to the sociopathic bombmonsters of America, they are responsible for everything. And yet they will never admit it because they are frothing, rabid, psychopathic parasites.

armchair analysis: europe sucks american cock (1.50 / 2) (#193)
by circletimessquare on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 12:43:07 PM EST

throughout the last 15 years, after the fall of the soviet empire, europe has increasingly plotted its own course, away from washington dc. this is natural: europe didn't need the usa anymore, the soviet threat was dead

now what do we see? we see a neoimperialist russia invading an outpost of european style liberalism on the black sea, and shutting down oil pipelines that fuel european cars and heat european houses

so naturally, we shall see europe huddling up against the usa again in the near future for protection from the bear waking up from hibernation

for example had bush invaded iraq in 2008 instead of 2003, AFTER the resurgence of russia, rather than before, you would see france, germany, etc., dutifully falling in line and supporting that with troops, rather than vocally distancing themselves. why? because suddenly EUROPE NEEDS THE USA AGAIN

europeans who hate the usa: be prepared to grow beet red in the face and throw food at your television. because what you will see there is merkel offering obama or mccain shoulder rubs, and sarkozy renaming french fries freedom fries: kowtowing to the next american president in ways you dislike, stifling all voices in your country that run antiamerican

europe has to do that again. its 1988 again, in geopolitical terms

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article4534358. ece?print=yes&randnum=1218813676860

Once again, the Europeans, and their friends in the pusillanimous wing of the US Left, have demonstrated that, when it come to those postmodern Olympian sports of synchronized self-loathing, team hand-wringing and lightweight posturing, they know how to sweep gold, silver and bronze.

There's a routine now whenever some unspeakable act of aggression is visited upon us or our allies by murderous fanatics or authoritarian regimes. While the enemy takes a victory lap, we compete in a shameful medley relay of apologetics, defeatism and surrender.

The initial reaction is almost always self-blame and an expression of sympathetic explanation for the aggressor's actions. In the Russian case this week, the conventional wisdom is that Moscow was provoked by the hot-headed President Saakashvili of Georgia. It was really all his fault, we are told.

What's more, the argument goes, the US and Europe had already laid the moral framework for Russia's invasion by our own acts of aggression in the past decade. Vladimir Putin was simply following the example of illegal intervention by the US and its allies in Kosovo and Iraq.




The tigers of wrath are wiser than the horses of instruction.

Why they're fighting (none / 1) (#194)
by Corwin06 on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 04:09:36 PM EST

Really
"and you sir, in an argument in a thread with a troll in a story no one is reading in a backwater website, you're a fucking genius
--circletimessquare
Russia opened the door (none / 1) (#223)
by redelm on Fri Aug 29, 2008 at 05:56:01 PM EST

Sure, the Georgians have lots to answer for. They provoked the Russians and miscalculated Russian response. Why would the Georgians expect Russian restraint?

Simple: South Ossetia was nominally within the acknowledged borders of Georgia. Russia has always insisted nominal borders be respected, and vigorous decried any outside interference/assistance to separatists. For the most excellent reason that Russia has many vulnerabilities -- areas that would like to separate. Chechnya is but one.

Now Russia has broken that position in the most obvious fashion. And virtually invites western interference, arms supply to rebels. Russia has sown the wind, and will reap a whirlwind. The US, NATO and western powers won't need to do more than tell their arms export watchdogs to go easy. Maybe Russia thinks we're too afraid of al Qaeda or diversion to Iraq.

A chess game, and Russia has made a gambit.



Russia did the right thing in Georgia | 229 comments (197 topical, 32 editorial, 1 hidden)
Display: Sort:

kuro5hin.org

[XML]
All trademarks and copyrights on this page are owned by their respective companies. The Rest © 2000 - Present Kuro5hin.org Inc.
See our legalese page for copyright policies. Please also read our Privacy Policy.
Kuro5hin.org is powered by Free Software, including Apache, Perl, and Linux, The Scoop Engine that runs this site is freely available, under the terms of the GPL.
Need some help? Email help@kuro5hin.org.
My heart's the long stairs.

Powered by Scoop create account | help/FAQ | mission | links | search | IRC | YOU choose the stories!