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What Is The Economic Future of the United States?

By pb in Op-Ed
Mon May 23, 2005 at 05:59:48 PM EST
Tags: Help! (Ask Kuro5hin) (all tags)
Help! (Ask Kuro5hin)

Anyone can predict the future, but we can't all be right. Some people see a rosy economic future; I fear a bleak one. But all we can do is hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I'm interested in what you think the economic future of the US will be, and here are some of the major issues to take into account; comment on what you see the outlook for the future being, and on any and all of these issues. Also, please add in any issues that impact our economic future, that I may have omitted. Try to be realistic, civil, and correct in ten years.
 


Issues and Considerations
  • The Trade Deficit - large
  • The National Debt - growing
  • Interest Rates - slowly rising
  • Wages - not keeping up with inflation
  • Job Growth - not meeting population growth
  • China and their currency - shrinking the trade deficit may also mean higher interest rates, i.e., more expensive debt payments
  • Government Expenditures vs. Income - expenditures exceed income; balancing this requires more tax revenue, less spending, or both.
  • Taxes and Tax Reform - One tax reform proposal that is up for consideration: the FairTax
  • Social Security - long-term solvency issues; fixing this may require higher payroll taxes or lower future benefits
  • Defense Spending - supplementals for Iraq and Afghanistan aren't included in the deficit numbers; other defense spending is rising as well
  • Transportation - the increased price of gas slightly increases the cost of goods, and decreases the amount of capital the average American spends
  • Health Care - increased health care costs have similar effects on businesses and people--giving them less money to spend
  • Energy - long-term maintenance and improvement of the grid will require more nuclear, coal, gas, and/or alternative sources of energy
  • Infrastructure - past neglect will necessitate future improvements - new roads, new refineries, etc. This affects energy, transportation, and no doubt other sectors of the economy.
What follows is one (example) scenario. I consider it to be a baseline prediction of what could likely happen without a major shift in US policy, and barring unforeseen events. The best case would be much better, and the worst case would be much worse.

While Social Security reform is addressed for the moment, rising health care costs are not. Interest rates and housing costs increase, further squeezing the consumer. China slowly revalues the yuan, slightly lowering the trade deficit, but pushing the national deficit up. The Chinese economy continues to boom, pushing up commodity prices as they secure energy reserves for their manufacturing industry. The US eventually leaves Iraq, but continues to fight terrorism abroad, saving some money, but with other defense costs slowly increasing. Government and consumer debt increases, and the economic dominance of the US gradually wanes. Not sustainable.

What's your scenario?

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Poll
What Is The Future of the United States?
o Dominant In The World, Forever 3%
o Doomed To Crash And Burn, Hard 16%
o To Move From Bubble To Bubble 8%
o Replaced As A Superpower 6%
o Forced To Share Superpower Status 17%
o Already Not A Superpower Anymore (shh don't tell them!) 4%
o The Next Germany (1933) 22%
o The Next Iraq (1979) 0%
o Back To The 30's! 3%
o Back To The 50's! 0%
o Back To The 70's! 1%
o Back To The 80's! 0%
o Back To The 90's! 1%
o Bread and Circuses! 11%
o Mu. 8%

Votes: 100
Results | Other Polls

Related Links
o FairTax
o Also by pb


Display: Sort:
What Is The Economic Future of the United States? | 141 comments (128 topical, 13 editorial, 0 hidden)
Foreign Affairs (3.00 / 2) (#4)
by srutis on Sat May 21, 2005 at 07:48:34 AM EST

In the Jan/Feb volume of Foreign Affairs, there are two articles about that .. .one rather positive and one negative but both very interesting.

economic future (3.00 / 8) (#5)
by adimovk5 on Sat May 21, 2005 at 08:09:45 AM EST

The Trade Deficit - The US has positive trade balances with some countries and negative trade balances with others. These numbers are mostly meaningless in a world of global trade between multinational corporations. Trade has grown beyond the ability of nation-states to control or calculate accurately.

The National Debt - Congress is addicted to spending other people's money. The debt will continue to float at around the same percentage of GNP.

Interest Rates - Interest rates will remain relatively low. The Federal Reserve is following the old West German model of using interest rates to control growth with inflation as the key indicator. As the economy grows, the Fed will increase rates. There's a limit to how much interest the economy can take. As the economy slows, the Fed will reduce rates to keep the economy warm. This neither hot nor cold approach has kept interest rates reasonable and the economy fairly steady. Alan Greenspan et al have either been very lucky or very talented.

Wages - Wages will continue to drop in the manufacturing sector as the economies of China, Eastern Europe, and India industrialize. Any product that requires no special knowledge will shift to those countries. The US will be left with companies that add high value, produce niche goods, or compete based on qulaity plus speed since they are local. Wages will drop in the tech industry as the labor pool increases. The large salaries of the past will become more in line with other labor intensive sectors. India will be at the forefront of this change. The drop will be gradual since the cheaper labor pool will not be large enough to satisfy demand. People who innovate will continue to receive larger salaries.

Job Growth - Jobs will lag population growth as the society ages. Entrepreneurs will realize the mostly untapped market in care for seniors and schools and jobs will follow.

China and their currency - China will not change its policy soon. It is already too large for the US to control. It will continue to play greedy corporations and governments against each other. No one will want to induce the sanctions necessary for fear of losing money to the others. China will not relax its policy until its GNP is equivalent to the US.

Government Expenditures vs. Income - Expenditures will continue to exceed income at the same rate unless a major catastrophe occurs.

Taxes and Tax Reform - Some form of sales tax will be adopted by the federal government as the main form of income. The governement will still continue to collect income taxes.

Social Security - The system will remain unchanged until a major third party candidate campaigns on the issue and draws support from the every growing percentage of the population that is near and over 65. This will happen much closer to the date that distributions exceed income. The result will be more government power.

Defense Spending - W will continue the slight-of-hand that allows him to pretend Iraq and Afghanistan aren't part of the Defense budget. The next president won't be as lucky. The next president will be faced with the drawdown in both countries and rebuilding the exhausted military.

Transportation - People will adjust to the higher costs associated with more expensive gas. Europeans have lived with higher gas prices for years.

Health Care - The current HMO driven system will fade and be remembered as a failed attempt to keep prices down. Newer efforts will arise such as hospital centered programs and doctor centered programs. You will choose health insurance just as you choose car insurance.

Energy - The cost of petroleum will continue to rise gradually. Research and development will increase as alternatives become cost effective by comparison. New methods of using current energy sources will arise. There's also the strong possibility that an known non-energy source will become an important energy source. Consider the fact that petroleum was known long before it was used to power the world's economy.



Here's my predictions (3.00 / 8) (#6)
by Betcour on Sat May 21, 2005 at 08:25:17 AM EST

The real estate bubble will end up bursting (as every bubble eventually does), as interest rate rise and as people realize that no crappy 3 bedroom house is worth $1.5 million. All those who bought with variable rates loans or interest-only loans will rush to get rid of their depreciating property, only to increase the speed with which prices will crash.

This will create a lot of bankrupty and bad loans, which in turn will create a major economic recession. The dollar value will fall further, China and Japan will prove unable to stop it and US interest rates as well as inflation will go thru the roof.

At this point the oil producers will likely switch to Euros for trade. Used SUVs will be plentyful and cheap. The US will wake up with low purchasing power and no industrial base left to get back on its feet (it has all been moved to China already). Its world influence will be vastly reduced as it is unable to pay its expensive army by borrowing anymore money.

If you'd like a good mental picture (2.50 / 8) (#7)
by Kasreyn on Sat May 21, 2005 at 01:37:08 PM EST

of the economic future of the United States, I suggest you go into the bathroom, look straight down into the john, and watch closely while depressing the lever.

Once the Baby Boom generation finishes dying off in pampered comfort, the rest of us are going to be looking around and realizing we've been sold down the river into Third World-dom.


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
No Change (and thus, No Story) (2.57 / 7) (#8)
by thelizman on Sat May 21, 2005 at 04:36:50 PM EST

The Trade Deficit - large
And mostly meaningless. I guarantee Wal*Mart doesn't buy jack shit from you, but that you buy stuff from Wal*Mart. Trade deficit: 100%. Does that mean your economic future is bleak? No.

The National Debt - growing
And always will grow, according to inflation. It's percentage of GDP is still nowhere near a level to be concerned with.

Interest Rates - slowly rising
See the next item

Wages - not keeping up with inflation
In market economics, rates of inflation are pegged to wage growth. Wages are a lagging economic indicator. If wages weren't growing, then interest rates wouldn't rise significantly. The fact that interest rates are rising indicate that more cashflow exists in the market. Interest rates are used as a predictor of wage growth, and recent trends indicate wages are growing, and doing so faster than inflation.

Job Growth - not meeting population growth
True - Expect tighter controls on immigration over the next few years.

China and their currency - shrinking the trade deficit may also mean higher interest rates, i.e., more expensive debt payments
uuuuh...yeah...whatever.

Government Expenditures vs. Income - expenditures exceed income; balancing this requires more tax revenue, less spending, or both.
Expenditures have almost always exceeded income. In fact, the social security payments have been shoring up the Federal Budget for decades, which is one of the reasons so many politicians are fighting so hard to preseve the system as it is, instead of modifying it (for better or for worse). Irregardless, the budget deficit isn't growing as fast as predicted thanks to Bush's liberal tax policy and the growing economy it's fostered.

Taxes and Tax Reform - One tax reform proposal that is up for consideration: the FairTax
And...what...do you have a point?

Social Security - long-term solvency issues; fixing this may require higher payroll taxes or lower future benefits
...or it may not. By allowing people to divert a portion of their SSI to private funds, the government will lessen the burden of individuals on the government and allow them greater flexibility in planning. I'll take the 114% five year growth of the average fund manager over the -5% loss over the same period SSI provides.

Defense Spending - supplementals for Iraq and Afghanistan aren't included in the deficit numbers; other defense spending is rising as well
Probably because the money hasn't been spent. You don't debit money until it's spent. The prior supplemental won't be depleted for a few more months.

Transportation - the increased price of gas slightly increases the cost of goods, and decreases the amount of capital the average American spends
No, it doesn't decrease the amount of money you spend. It increases the amount of commodities and goods you purchase. There is no problem with transportation. This falls under "Energy" at the bottom.

Health Care - increased health care costs have similar effects on businesses and people--giving them less money to spend
That's all part of inflation. The 'health care crisis' in this country is largely imagined, however.

Energy - long-term maintenance and improvement of the grid will require more nuclear, coal, gas, and/or alternative sources of energy
Energy prices are a primary contributor to inflation, which is why we need a comprehensive energy policy that encourages domestic renewable resources like biodiesel, nuclear power, and clean coal. If all this sounds familiar, it's because Bush has been harking on it for years, but the obstructionists in congress (democrat and republican) have other priorities.

In all, you seem desperate to know that America is on the verge of crashing, but it's not going to happen. Change is certainly desirable, but the long term outlook is just fine, thanks.
--

"Our language is sufficiently clumsy enough to allow us to believe foolish things." - George Orwell
The US has a long way to go (2.81 / 11) (#9)
by godix on Sat May 21, 2005 at 05:06:30 PM EST

before we're all that bad. Even if we take a dive, and I think we will somewhat, we'll STILL be better of than most. For example, the US current has 5.2% unemployment, contrast that to Germany which has 12.5%. That's a lot of people losing their jobs until we're as bad off as Germany nevermind the real economic shitholes of the world. Or compare GDP (pdf link). The US could lose half it'd GDP value and STILL be #1 in the world by a margin greater than the entire GDP of Canada. So before everyone trots out the doom and gloom scenarios keep in mind we have a LONG way to fall before we'd be nothing more than equal to the rest of the world.

Anyway, on to your issues:
The Trade Deficit - Large but not a huge problem. People who think the trade deficit is a huge problem need to realize that wealth isn't a zero sum game. To illistrate, you can give your local bum $10 every single day without ever running out of money as long as you make $10.01 or more every day. The same is true of the US, it can send out billions a day forever provided it makes billions + 1 cent at the same time. I don't see problems with the trade deficit, much of what the US imports are luxery goods and if times got tough people would quit buying the luxery goods therefore the trade deficit would lower itself. If the US was like Japan where it MUST import raw materials then there might be a problem if things got bad but we aren't, the US is capable of sustaining itself if it ever needed to.

The National Debt - Growing but much of the problem is related to military spending which will fall as we withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq. Most of the rest is related directly to social security, medicare, and other entitlement programs and nothing serious will be done to those until Amerians get smart and realize we either need Europe like tax levels to fund Europe like social programs or we need to drop the social programs. Somewhere in the future a USian will either be paying much more in taxes or will quit relying on the government for handouts. Probably we'll settle for higher taxes but I'd like to think Americans have enough spark of independence and resonability to ditch the redistribution handout model.

Interest Rates - Are pretty damned trivial as a way of measuring the economy or an influence on the economy. Greenspan has been raising them as the economy raises so if anything raising interest rates is a good sign but overall there's much better indicators and influences.

Wages - not keeping up with inflation ...amoung low skilled labor. Education is the key to good jobs but unfortunately a large segment of the population doesn't realize that. The problem is education not financial here.

Job Growth - The US has what is, historicall speaking, a low unemployement figure. Not much to worry about here.

China and their currency - While this will, and does, cause problems I personally expect China to enter into the same type of labor problems that the US did in the early 1900's and when that happens they will be replaced by other third world shitholes for cheap no skill labor products.

Government Expenditures vs. Income - This is the national debt with a different phrasing. Same answer as I mentioned in the national debt

Taxes and Tax Reform - As I said, either the US is heading to HUGE tax inceases or we're heading to massive cuts in entitlement programs. If it's the first then any tax reform will be just a way to disguise a tax hike. If it's the second I could actually see a situation where the poor and middle class pay no taxes and only the upper middle class and rich do.

Social Security - It's either going away and we'll have to provide for ourselves or we're getting our taxes raised. Bush's plan is, basically, a very small baby step in the first direction and looking at how much shit he's getting for it I kinda doubt there will be a second step.

Defense Spending - will go down after Afghanistan and Iraq. The number of men in the military will drop signifcantly and they will be replaced with high tech devices which are expensive but not nearly as expensive as a platoon of soldiers. The US will retool it's military to be designed for small tactical strikes against enemies rather than overwhelming WWII like battles. We were already heading in that direction before 9/11.

Health Care - I HOPE the US will go to a somewhat European like system where the federal government direct finances basic health care but advanced or unneccesary care will be suplimented by individuals. Insurance will still be around and still be an employement perk for this advanced care but it won't be the sole finacing for most Americans. This is what I hope. I EXPECT we'll slap minor patches on the semi-free market semi-socialized health care system we have now that takes the worse of both systems and tosses out the best of them.

Energy - Two posabilities. Either oil will continue to rise while alternative energy falls and there will slowly be a switch as those prices come closer together. Energy prices will slowly go up as those prices converge then when alternative energy becomes cheaper than oil real energy prices will fall as the economies of scale kick in on alternative energy. I am including cars when I mention alternative energy, as oil goes up the hybrid cars will be much more popular.
Posability #2: Someone finally gets the enviromental pussies to shut the fuck up and we can use nuclear power and provide much more energy than we currently do for far cheaper. Unlikely to happen, the US is rich enough to afford higher energy prices to keep enviroidiots happy and will probably continue to do so.

One that you didn't mention, the EU. If the EU pulls together it will become a powerful force and may eventually resemble the US as far as structure and economics goes. I doubt it'll pull together through. Racism, nationalism, and self interest will keep the EU from really unifying it's members economys. Just look at the naysayers in the French EU Constitution vote to see exactly what I mean.

My baseline prediction: The US economy keeps growing. There will be problems and people will react to them as if the world was ending but really they'll be minor blips. China will have economic problems, perhaps even a full revolution, and will no longer be our major trading partner. Some other shithole of the world will quickly take their place. Unskilled low paying labor in the US becomes rarer and the lower class gets hit. Politicians use that as a guilt trip to increase federal entitlements. The US tax rate slow raises until it's more in line with what you see in Europe. The high tax rate severly limits US growth in the future but it takes decades for any country to catch up to the huge gap betweent he US and everyone else. US military transforms itself and future military actions will rely even more on technology than we already have. Occupations are unlikely although we would be able to occupy one country with the same sort of problems we're having occupying two now.


- An egotist is someone who thinks they're almost as good as I am.

Heartwarming theory on national debt (2.75 / 4) (#10)
by StephenThompson on Sat May 21, 2005 at 06:27:01 PM EST

Microsoft's stock value is 30 times higher than its income. This is considered a measure of the company's value, a sign the company is healthy and powerful. The US's national debt is the same. Consider: the US is widely considered one of the most healthy economies and most powerful contries, and yet, it also has the highest debt of any country. A nice correlation. Tell yourself this when you go to sleep at night. Feel good about it. It'll be good for your stress levels and make you happier.

US Infrastucture (3.00 / 5) (#12)
by cronian on Sat May 21, 2005 at 10:02:45 PM EST

America's physical infrastructure is crumbling. With all the wasted federal spending on military, wars, and corruption the US has been neglecting the proper maintenance of roads, trains, schools, water sanitation, parks, and other basic things. These things are the backbone of sucessful culture and commerce.

According to the American Society of civil engineers american infrastructure received a 'D'. Likewise, the CIA World Factbook states "Long-term problems [for the United States] include inadequate investment in economic infrastructure".

Other problems can be dealt with. Loans can be repudiated or forgiven. New technologies can emerge. However, it takes time build up infrastructure. The United States shouldn't have third rate infrastructure.

We perfect it; Congress kills it; They make it; We Import it; It must be anti-Americanism
Actually, that's not all we can do. (3.00 / 3) (#19)
by skyknight on Sun May 22, 2005 at 09:28:48 AM EST

We could also hope for the best and prepare for the best. Suicidal though that may be, it would seem to be the strategy under which most people labor. The hope is that it's their grandchildren who will be bled by their fiduciary chicanery, or better still, that pennies will rain from heaven.

Also worth considering: cosmic justice does in fact not exist; the world economy, as it is presently configured, could not tolerate the loss of the US and consequently will not allow it to happen, thus the efforts of other countries to prop up our currency.

I think that the US is in the middle of a painful transition from being the world's industrial leader to being the world's knowledge production leader. This will be a very unpleasant transition for those who planned their lives around an industrial world and now find themselves in a sea of computing technology. Oh well. The people who weaved things by hand fared ill when mechanized looms arrived on the scene, and if the job you presently perform can be performed by either an accounting program or robotics, then you are in for a world of hurt. Evolution takes no prisoners in the natural world, and at best it puts prisoners in extermination camps in the economic world. So it goes. Adapt or die. If America does not adopt such a hard-nosed strategy, then some other nation will, and will consequently exploit it to America's disadvantage.

The health care system is whack. The US spends more money on health care than any other country on the world, but somehow manages to see less in the way of total services. This is because there are enormous inefficiencies regarding the way the system is configured. We spend an enormous amount of money on the act of passing the buck, and thus when the rubber meets the road, or the physician meets the patient, much of the health care dollars have already been burned on outrageous administration costs. However, that being said, I am adamantly against state run health care. Monopolies are a bad thing, whether they are in the public or private sector. If things become corrupt within an organization, as they inevitably will, and there are no other players on the field, there is no competitive pressure exerted to correct the deformities. As a good first step, I think we should decouple employers and health care payers. People should be able to buy reasonably priced health care without it being tied to their job. Our present system is an anachronistic carry-over from the government fixing wages during WWII and employers finding ways to hack around the limitations of the system to compete for employees.

Social Security, as run by the government, is just a bad idea. It was a bad idea when it was instituted, and now we're trapped under its weight. It would be incredibly cruel to make people who have paid into it for their whole lives go without benefits now, and it is incredibly cruel to make young people pay into it now without any hope of ever seeing return. The simple matter of fact is that when you add everything up, there is no free lunch, and seeing as the initial recipients of the system were given such a lunch, it's likely that someone is going to end up paying for lunch and going hungry, subsidizing someone else's lunch and getting none of their own. The only way you can avoid this is to bleed rich people who don't need social security payments to pay for those who do.

A simplified tax code would be a huge boon for the economy. At 7.5 million words, the US tax code is out of control. There's no reason a good tax code could not be fully described on a few sheets of paper at a reasonable font size. As it stands, all of this bloat serves to favor corporations with a lot of pull who can get laws written specifically for them, rich people who can afford tax lawyers and accountants, and the tax lawyers and accountants who cash in on the tragedy. The US tax code should be burned to the ground and re-written from scratch.

The US military is in a bit of a pickle... On the one hand, it wants to be able to fight asymmetric warfare against terrorists. This means having a light and nimble force that can reach any corner of the globe within hours by air transport, instead of juggernaut-style forces that can roll over anything but have to be shipped via boat and take weeks to arrive. On the other hand, the US needs lots of conventional forces for two reasons. Firstly, if you're going to address the roots of terrorism, that means nation building, and nation building needs lots of boots on the ground. Grunts patrolling the streets of hostile regions aren't much helped by precision guided ordnance. They need lots of fellow grunts to spread the work, they need really good armor on their Humvees to deal with the people who want to kill them, and they need language skills to deal with the people who don't want to kill them so that they don't humiliate them, causing them to transition to the other team. Second, the US needs large conventional forces to deal with the rising threat of China. Simply put, China is building a huge navy, and that absolutely has to be countered in some way or other. If China has an armada of boats, the US needs an armada of boats. The real problem here is that the US has two conflicting goals, both of which are very expensive, and a ham-strung budget at home making every expenditure very painful.

Energy management is going to become an increasingly intractable problem. Not only are the present supplies already troublesome given their geographical location, but China and India are rapidly developing an insatiable appetite for energy. Unless the US wants to find itself in a bloody and protracted war over the world's energy reserves, it needs to find a way to attain energy independence, and it needs to do it quickly. I don't have a good feel for what the time line on this ought to be, but I would hazard a guess that things are going to be really bad if we haven't tackled the majority of this problem by 2020.

Perhaps the biggest problem in my mind that you have neglected to mention is that of education. As someone who has been through a lot of education in the American system, something that I find striking is that a lot of people don't seem to harbor a sincere and mature devotion to learning. They want to get their piece of paper, get out into the work force to make mad bling bling by tapping into that piece of paper, and they don't much care about possessing a tangible store of knowledge. Increasingly, American schools are becoming paper mills. It's a lucrative industry, and it's unsustainable because it's a fraud. There is far too much focus on airy credentials from accredited universities, and an alarming amount of focus on arbitrary metrics and the consequent "teaching to the test" in grade school. The result is a bunch of freshly minted college graduates with an entitlement syndrome, no idea of how what they have done in school might be applied to the work force in a meaningful way, and an utter disdain for the pursuit of knowledge.

In the end, a sense of entitlement is the kiss of death. It's a dog eat dog world. You'd better be a big and crafty dog, or you're on the menu.



It's not much fun at the top. I envy the common people, their hearty meals and Bruce Springsteen and voting. --SIGNOR SPAGHETTI
WIPO: (3.00 / 5) (#21)
by localroger on Sun May 22, 2005 at 10:59:41 AM EST

The Handmaid's Tale

I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer
Ok chickenlittle... now what?! (none / 1) (#37)
by neozeed on Sun May 22, 2005 at 06:46:54 PM EST

Of course we are on a collision course with disaster... but do what?! How did the romans deal with their inement collapse....?

-----------------------
Unless you're alive you can't play. And if you don't play, you don't get to be alive.

do not worry about the future, citizen (none / 0) (#41)
by SIGNOR SPAGHETTI on Sun May 22, 2005 at 07:32:27 PM EST

we will open new wounds the better to take our minds off the old ones

--
Stop dreaming and finish your spaghetti.

Back in the game. (2.75 / 4) (#45)
by Ryan Singer on Sun May 22, 2005 at 08:55:30 PM EST

I'm not sure I like the assumptions I am guessing you are starting with, but I'll bite and talk about your issues.

The Current Accounts Deficit - This is not a trade deficit, because such thing is theoretically impossible.  Remember that dollars are effectively the same thing as treasury notes, if you sell things for dollars, and then put those dollars under your mattress, the US benefits.  So, every year of the Current Accounts deficit, we have, by definition a Capital Account surplus.  Basically, we only have a Current Accounts deficit because everyone invests in (purchases with foreign currency) United States Dollars, so we buy goods with that foreign currency.  Once the rest of the world decides to stop investing in America, the CA deficit will go away.

The National Debt - Scary.  The public sector is incapable of making the kind of investments that would make borrowing money worth it.  We should stop entirely, and start paying it off.  The only expense that the public sector needs to invest in is security, lets divest ourselves of social programs.

Interest Rates - are under the direct control of the fed, and are not really an indicator of anything such as they are.  Interest rates are going up because the fed wants them to in case of inflation.  Not scary at all.

Job Growth - Do your part, start a resteraunt.  Job growth is driven by small business, not government.

China and their currency - China would see huge gains from floating their currency, because they wouldn't have to spend to maintain the peg.  We really don't care.  The Exchange rate with china and the trade in Chinese goods will be determined by supply and demand, if chinese goods are too expensive there are starving people elsewhere willing to make our sneakers without it costing too much more.  We have a CA deficit before China embraced free trade.

Government Expenditures vs. Income - Again, Government is incapable of investing in value.  They need to back off to the things that have a need for them, like defense.

Taxes and Tax Reform - Good idea.  A consumption based tax would kill the wasteful tax avoidance industry and encourage investment instead of luxury consumption.  This is thinking on the right path.

Social Security - The problem is that the Social Security Trust Fund is invested in treasury bonds, it's like investing in your checking account.  This needs to be invested elsewhere, either in stocks or in foreign bonds.

Defense Spending - This is governments job, we should argue for transparency, but I am much more concerned about the more wastefull things the government does.

Transportation - Ouch!  Nobody spends capital.  If you are spending it, it's money.  Capital is invested.  Gas is expensive enough that I am considering a Hybrid vehical.  That is how the market handles things.  This is not scary, it is just supply and demand.  I am scared of the government trying to fix it though.

Health Care - The Government has really fucked us here by building a third party payer system in America.  This needs to be dismantled.  Perhaps people should keep health savings accounts instead of insurance?

Energy - Over-regulation is a huge problem here.  We need to regulate the pollution aspect in a measureable way.  Stupid bias against Nuclear energy keeps horrible fossil fuels when Nuclear power is cleaner and cheaper.  Once pollution is regulated, preferably with Cap and Trade, and then the other government regulations are repealed, I have no doubts that supply will meet demand.

Infrastructure - The government sucks at this.  Let roads be finianced and built like the Dulles Toll Road near DC.  Energy should be the province or energy providers, just like cable infrastructure is the province of cable providers.  Have you ever heard of rolling cable blackouts?

In short, I am optimistic about the future of the American market.  I will feel better if the government takes more of a regulatory and less of an active role.  I am not scared by police or military spending, it's why we have a government.

I love seeing people deny the obvious (1.66 / 6) (#56)
by Peahippo on Mon May 23, 2005 at 04:30:09 AM EST

As long as society assumes the mantle of Fascism, the destruction of the middle class will go almost unnoticed. It'll be kind of like when a working middle class neighborhood goes Black. All of a sudden, a generation passes and it's Crackhouse Lane with crowds of Blacks. The few oldster Whites remaining on the street will lament "what happened?", but all the mobile yuppies will be too busy catching new STDs to ever notice them ... until they end up in their own newly-made ghettoes, saying the same "what happened?" in the same high-pitched whiny voices.

America is slowly but firmly sinking into the mire of Fascism. It's the most natural thing in the world. First you have the Republic, then it decays out of fear and greed, and then people get jailed for virtually anything stupid you can think of. It becomes an Empire, and must flex its military dick since it has no prosperous economy to fall back upon otherwise.

And then it ends. All Empires collapse. It can be a bang or a whimper, but one day people will have as little concern for the "United States Government" as they do for Andorra's government. The onus for World Leadership will pass to another fucking Empire, like China.


If this article get voted up (1.12 / 8) (#57)
by ljj on Mon May 23, 2005 at 04:38:41 AM EST

Then this site is dead. How is this 'op-ed'?

--
ljj

Cracks in the Empire. (3.00 / 3) (#58)
by RobRoy on Mon May 23, 2005 at 04:55:28 AM EST

A greater depth of the economic stability of a power can be inferred by the desperation of its foreign policy, and the paranoia of its internal security.

At the end of World War Two, every other power in the world had undergone significant infrastructural damage and there was nothing that could have stopped the USA from taking over the world.

However at that time it was not on the agenda. In 1956 the USA forced an end to the British and French invasion of Egypt with diplomacy and economic threats.
How differently we see USA now. Very brutal invasion of the Afghanistani route to the oil and gas of the Caspian sea, and followed by a unashamedly illegal invasion of Iraqi oil-fields. Nothing resembling the Geneva Convention is even given lip-service when prisoners are taken and internal freedoms of movement and speech are rapidly eroding.

We seeing a country fighting for its life, even if we don't understand what the immediate threat is.

The decision to let the value of the greenback slip, (probably in response to the Chinese pegging the Quai to the Greenback at 8.22), is going to have an intellectual toll as the best of the best move to Europe where the pay is better. I don't see China acquiescing to USA pressure to float the Yuan though. History shows that the world's two biggest powers go to war, so in the medium term, a policy that weakens America's economy is just as good for China as one that strengthens its own.

However, USA is a great place to run a business. Employee's have much less protection than in most countries, and the limits of the welfare state and the public education system ensures the existence of a local underclass, in this peculiarly American thing, the tenement house, that can provide inshore cheap labour.

There cannot be much doubt that the next 20 years will show a drop in the median standard of living in America. Strong-arming of increasingly ridiculous copyright laws throughout the world will slow the decline, but not halt it.

However a drop in the mean standard of living probably won't affect the middle classes much.
And 10 years will still see a strong and cohesive America;
just entering a new cold war with China (or possibly India, but I doubt that because they will not have efficiency towards the small business until they find a system to centralise the corruption similar to the American way), and continuing to struggle with Europe for royalties and licence monies, on increasingly dated technologies. (And cartoon mice).
Foreign debt will still be growing cheerfully.
Social Security will be a little eroded, and America will be concentrating its increasingly burdensome armed forces in the resource-rich parts of the globe. Perhaps an invasion of Iran.
Unemployment will not sky-rocket, but the mean wage will slump a little in response to slightly increasing unemployment.
America has spectacular infrastructure. Probably the best in the world. It can slip a mountainside and not directly affect Americas place in the world.
Holding out against the Kyoto Protocol will keep road transportation cost down to the lowest in the first world. This will work for 30-40 years before it significantly affects you trade agreements.

China the world power (3.00 / 2) (#59)
by nebbish on Mon May 23, 2005 at 05:57:36 AM EST

Doesn't anyone realise that as a dictatorship China probably faces a lot of destabilising political turmoil in the future?

---------
Kicking someone in the head is like punching them in the foot - Bruce Lee

the only problem with this analysis is that (3.00 / 2) (#72)
by circletimessquare on Mon May 23, 2005 at 02:45:37 PM EST

the us is so plugged into the the world economy that it begins to be such that you can't talk about one without talking about the other

such that where the us suffers, the world suffers, and visa versa

and that is the way it should be, really, and should be for all world societies: less war is the result of more interdependence

now you COULD extrapolate to the future where the us economy is a lot weaker than it currently is

except that the only problem there is you are forgetting another trend: the further and further interdependability off the world economy

my point being is that as the us might grow weaker, at the same time the new trend of further and further interdependability offsets that

so the fate of the us economy is the fate of the world economy

so there is no reason that you can talk about one without the other

and not that this is an american-centric observation: you could say the same thing for every other major economy in the world

and this is not a bad thing: globalization is not bad, it's good

one economy, one standard, leads to less mismatch in standards of living from one society to another, and therefore less inequality and less geopolitical conflict

rich democratic societies with strong economic interdependence don't really have any reason to fight one another


The tigers of wrath are wiser than the horses of instruction.

different mode of taxation (3.00 / 5) (#82)
by fourseven on Mon May 23, 2005 at 05:10:03 PM EST

here's an idea.. since voting doesn't really work anymore in america, and taxes are a) a fucking bitch, b) misused by those whom the "voting process" puts in power to do so, how about considering a scenario that fixes both issues by putting them upside down and mixing thoroughly?

let us vote with our taxes. each year around tax time, everyone eligible receives a big fat form full of options. you get one for federal taxes, and one for state taxes. maybe even one for local (municipal, whatever) taxes. on each form, you have a long list of items, and you can put dollar values next to them. the shtick is, you have to give up a certain percentage of your wages (yes, i know, that's halfway to slavery, but one step at a time please), but you get a choice as to where your money goes.

you don't want war? you give the defense department $0 this year. you'd like to see independent energy produced locally? you put some of your tax money towards that. you choose your politicians by how much money you give to support them. maybe you even get to "vote" on key issues with your dollars and cents. forget congress, these fuckers have been bought long time ago. how about each invidual person slugging away at their day job gets to decide what floats and what sinks? don't like the patriot bill? don't give it any money to live off of. you'd like to see a certain piece of legislation pass? you donate to the cause, help make it happen faster.

yes, yes, this would be complicated. how would you keep track of who contributed where and what services should they be awarded/denied? there would have to be some regulation still.. you could not give $0 to the local fire department -- they still have to come and put out your house fire to protect others. but some key things would improve beyond belief.. heavy corporate lobbying and campaign contributions would not have as much effect anymore. people would pay more attention to issues; chances are we would feel more in control of things. stupid fucking shit would go bankrupt, because noone would put their tax dollars towards it.

seems like money does all the talking these days.. might as well put all that talk to a forum that matters.. give everyone a voice equal to their economic contribution, spread out the infuence, hear all the voices. hell, you'd probably see people volunteering to pay more taxes (especially the rich) to get what they care about to the front..

The big D (none / 1) (#89)
by dageshi on Mon May 23, 2005 at 08:23:34 PM EST

Recent History. Since the .bomb crash the Fed has been printing money at a staggering rate, I believe at the fastest pace in the history of the US. This has had some obvious effects primarily asset prices have continued to appreciate while at the same time all that printing has devalued the dollar. By asset prices I mean stocks, bonds, houses, commodities the works pretty much. All the while during this period the US has been running a large trade deficit, something else which has been contributing to the decline of the dollar, now this is o.k as long as the rest of the world is happy to invest in America. And they have, pretty much every month enough capital has flown into the US to buy shares, bonds and other bits of paper in order to keep everything balanced. I believe the figure is that the US needs to attract 2 billion dollars per day in foreign investment in order to keep things balanced. Now the majority of that buying came from foreign central banks, specifically China and Japan. To put this into context China as of Jan 2005 held 194 billion dollars of US Treasuries and Japan held (wait for it...) 701.6 billion dollars. The Present. Japan and China have stopped buying. Infact they are perhaps slowly selling or letting their Bonds cash out without renewing them. And who's taking u p the slack?? "Caribbean Banking" Otherwise known as hedge funds. Domiciled in the Caribbean for tax purposes, have been buying lots and lots of treasury bonds for the last couple of months. Why is that scary? Because hedge funds move with the wind. They are in and out of markets like "locusts" as and when the chance offers itself. Now China and Japan themselves could if they decided to sell at once (either of them) do a fair job of screwing the US Gov by selling their bond holdings all at once. They havn't so far because its not in their interests (can't exactly sell stuff to the US if you've just bankrupted the US Gov) So now it's a game of chicken, who is going to break first and sell off their holdings, because the first entity to do it might get some of their money back, the rest... well perhaps not. Lets just hope those hedge funds don't all decide to pile out at the same time. Really lets hope.

Critical issue you're missing (3.00 / 2) (#91)
by mckwant on Mon May 23, 2005 at 10:16:49 PM EST

What happens when the Euro becomes the default currency for international finance?

Don't laugh.  One reason the trade imbalance doesn't matter is that the US can always print enough money to get out of it.  Will it cause other problems?  Of course, but the debt will be brought under control.

So what happens when the default currency is the Euro?  Now, the US can devalue the currency all it wants, but the debt won't change.  It's an issue.  not now, but maybe 10 years from now.

BTW, all this screaming about China is a little overrated.  There are already reports of people communicating over cell phones to find the best factory jobs.  The worst factories are having a tough time finding workers.

Sure, the Chinese are inexperienced at capitalism, but they're not idiots.  They'll go through the same growing pains that every other proto-capitalist society has, albeit a little more slowly.

Your job is toast. (none / 0) (#97)
by crustacean on Tue May 24, 2005 at 01:52:41 AM EST

Mickey D's is starting to tinker with having its orders processed by call centres. What? Yes. You think that they aren't screwing up enough of your orders as it is? Right now, there are Mickey D's in the states where you do not speak to someone in the restaurant when you're giving your order; you speak to someone in another town or state. While they are waxing poetic in their enthusiastic PR spin of this bold development in crappy fast-food service (citing a saving of eight man-hours per franchise per day and call-center workers "elevated communication skills"), it is a smokescreen for the obvious endgame. Your Big Slack order will soon be taken by someone in a Calcutta slum, or Chinese prison. When the North American Blue Collar Working Person complains about jobs moving across the ocean or the border, politicians and economists talk about a changing economy with an increased focus on the service sector and new jobs created by technology. Well, guess what? Big corporations are going to find ways to send even crappy service sector jobs to someone who'll work for ten bucks a week. So if you thought that flipping burgers for five bucks an hour was a bleak but stable future, just wait 'til robots are extruding our mcspewie nourishment and the person at the other end of the speaker doesn't understand the phrase "You f***ed up my order again!" (even if you do reach the same call-centre slave).


Will take to the forest before the oil overlords annex Canada.

Rebuild the tax code to start... (2.50 / 2) (#98)
by Gooba42 on Tue May 24, 2005 at 02:39:17 AM EST

A flat percentage of income tax is fair and reasonable.

It's entirely supportable that the upper tax brackets now receive the majority of the benefit of the government through various forms of corporate welfare, protection from prosecution and legislative favors so I don't see any real problem with the top end of the scale.

At the bottom end of the scale the people with the least disposable income could actually have more money to spend thus stimulating a stagnating economy with more disposable income and making it less difficult to live on a lower wage.

With a simpler tax code the IRS, all associated bureaucracy, and administration costs would be cut out of the loop saving more revenue.

Rebuild the tax code from the ground up, starting with zero exemptions/credits and moving up from there. Offer no room for loopholes or tax dodges.

Once you have the revenue stream sorted out, address spending on a ground-up basis.

Audit our military budget for any "quirks". We're paying for upkeep on unused bases and even upgrades to retired bases now, this sort of thing must be cut out of the budget.

Audit our welfare system both domestic and "refugee". A family in my neighborhood declares $300/mo income from the father's dentistry practice and has a BMW waiting in the garage for when their 3rd grader can drive. They receive these benefits because they are refugees from somewhere in East Asia. Why am I paying for someone else's BMW?

Audit our purchasing and aquisitions system. Open all processes up to competitive bidding and public scrutiny, if necessary creating an approved vendor situation in cases of national security.

Put congress and the president on timecards. Make them accountable to their constituents as much as we possibly can. Eliminate riders on all bills or require the entire process to be restarted with the introduction of a rider, help eliminate corporate feasting on the citizenry's tab by exposing it at every stage.

We can't control the world's demand for our goods or competition for raw materials but we can focus on doing the best, most efficient job possible with our own country and resources. Freeing up some resources in the form of increased revenue and less wasteful spending would go a long way towards making us more independent and allowing us to maintain and/or reform social security and other ailing systems.

Hell, we might even be able to pay for some of these unfunded mandates to go to Mars, to invent some objective way to rate teachers and teach children.

What Is The Economic Future of the United States? | 141 comments (128 topical, 13 editorial, 0 hidden)
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