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Describing and predicting behavior: The Big Five

By roffe in Culture
Mon Mar 28, 2005 at 04:29:02 AM EST
Tags: Science (all tags)
Science

The answer to the question "What is personality?" depends very much on why the question is asked. There are many ways to deal with this question. Here, I will focus on the trait-based approach, which is one attempt at describing individual differences and predicting individual behavior.

This knowledge is useful. For example, research shows that companies that use knowledge of personality as part of their selection procedures have higher productivity, less employee turnover, and higher employee satisfaction than those that don't.

The last twenty years, personality research has been centering around a model known as the "Big Five," and sometimes referred to as the "Five-Factor Model of Personality". This is the culmination of nearly a hundred years of research. I will sketch the history of the Big 5 here, provide a brief presentation of the factors, and mention the MBTI in passing.


The Lexical Hypothesis

The story begins with Gordon Allport and H.S. Odbert, who hypothesized that

Those individual differences that are most salient and socially relevant in people's lives will eventually become encoded into their language; the more important such a difference, the more likely is it to become expressed as a single word.

This has become known as the "Lexical Hypothesis."

What Allport and Odbert did, though, was to go through two of the most comprehensive dictionaries of the English language available at the time, and extract 18,000 personality-describing words. From this gigantic list, they extracted 4500 personality-describing adjectives that they found describing observable and relatively permanent traits. And then, in 1936, they rested their case.

The case was picked up again in 1946 by Raymond Cattell, who used new technology, i.e. computers, to do data reduction on the Allport-Odbert list. He organized the list into 181 clusters and asked people to rate people they knew by the adjectives on the list. Using factor analysis, he ended up with twelve factors. He added four factors that he thought ought to have been there, and ended up with the hypothesis that individuals describe themselves and each other according to sixteen different, independent factors.

With these sixteen factors as a basis, he went on and constructed the 16PF Personality Questionnaire, which is still being used in universities and businesses for research, personnel selection and the like. Later research has failed to replicate the results, however, and it has been shown that Cattell retained too many factors. The current 16PF, however, takes these findings into account and is in fact a very good test which is still being developed. In 1963, W.T. Norman redid Cattell's work and suggested that five factors would be sufficient.

The Dark Ages

And then for seventeen years, nothing happened: It was proven that personality is not stable, but varies wildly with situations, so that prediction of behavior by personality test is impossible: Social Psychologists demonstrated that character, or personality, is something humans impose on people in order to maintain an illusion of consistency in the world. The final nail in the coffin was Walter Mischel's 1968 book Psychological Assessment which demonstrated that personality tests cannot predict behavior with a correlation of more than 0.3.

Around 1980, three things happened that brought the present strain of personality research out of the Dark Ages. These were Personal Computers, Statistical Aggregation, and The Big Five.

Personal Computers

Traditionally, Psychologists who needed computers had to rent access to a mainframe. Suddenly, they could do their statistical analysis on their desktops. This meant that anybody could, for instance, re-examine the Allport-Odbert list. But why would they, if personality is an illusion?

Statistical Aggregation

It was argued that personality psychologists had looked at behavior from the wrong level. Instead of trying to predict single instances of behavior, which just didn't work, researchers should try to predict patterns of behavior. Correlations soared from .3 to .8. Hey presto, we've got personalities anyway! Social Psychologists still argue that we impose consistency on the world, but that there is in fact more consistency to begin with than they once thought.

The Big Five

At a symposium held in Honolulu in 1981, the four prominent researchers Lewis Goldberg, Naomi Takamoto-Chock, Andrew Comrey, and John M. Digman reviewed the personality tests available at the day, and decided that most of the tests that held any promise seemed to measure a subset of five common factors - in fact the same as Norman had discovered in 1963.

We've got triangulation!

Both the lexical hypothesis, then, and more theory-laden research converge on a model that states that personality can be described in terms of five aggregate-level trait descriptors. The Big Five model is still in a state of transition, and researchers tend to develop their own variants, however when researchers talk to each other, they usually translate their model into the one proposed by Norman in 1963. These are

The Factors

  • Surgency or Extraversion

    How energetic one is. People who score high on this factor like to work in cooperation with others, are talkative, enthusiastic and excitement seeking. People who score low on this factor prefer to work alone, and can be perceived as cold, difficult to read, even a bit eccentric.

  • Agreeableness

    One's level of orientation towards other people. Those who score high on this factor are usually co-operative, can be submissive, and concerned with the well-being of others. People who score low on this factor can be challenging, competitive, sometimes even argumentative.

These are the two "social" factors. People who score more than middle on both plus more than middle on IQ tend to have high "emotional intelligence."

  • Conscientiousness

    How "structured" one is. People who score high on this factor are usually productive and disciplined and single tasking. People who score low on this factor are often less structured, less productive, but can be more flexible and inventive, and can be multitasking.

  • Neuroticism or (inversely) Emotional Stability

    Tendency to worry. People who score low on this factor are usually calm, relaxed and rational and may sometimes be perceived as lazy and incapable of taking things seriously. People who score high on this factor are alert, anxious, sometimes worried.

  • Culture or Openness to Experience or Openness to Ideas

    Tendency to be speculative and imaginative. People who score high on this factor are neophilic and curious and sometimes unrealistic. People who score low on this factor are down-to-earth and practical and sometimes obstructive of change.

There is a lot of research available on the Big Five. The problem is that very little of it is published in books with pictures - most of it is relatively uncompiled in research journals. In order to make use of the Big Five, then, one needs to be up to date on the literature.

When conflicts are due to differences in personality, it is usually due to differences in Openness to Experience. The factors that predict job performance are Conscientiousness (which should be high) and Neuroticism (which should be low). Leaders should be high on all factors except Neuroticism and Agreeableness which should be low - and salespeople should be similar but with even higher scores on Surgency. Incidentally, this is culture-dependent - in most countries outside the USA (including Canada), leaders and salespeople should be higher on Agreeableness than in the USA

The MBTI

What about the MBTI (Myers-Briggs Type Indicator), then, which I assume most of you have heard of? Well, it seems that it measures four of the factors - Neuroticism is left out, but has been proposed as added in newer revisions, against much protesting. The MBTI is not based on the lexical hypothesis but on a theory which is, to Jung's credit, fairly head-on with current research. There is one issue with the MBTI, though, and that is the notion that all the 16 types it covers are equally good but different - this, the Big Five research has shown, is not true. Most ENTJ's are better leaders than most INTP's, not just different types of leaders. This one issue does of course not invalidate all of the MBTI, which is a very good test.

Further research

Current research concentrates on three areas. The first is: Are the five factors the right ones? Attempts to replicate the Big Five in other countries with local dictionaries have succeeded in some countries but not in others. For instance, Hungarians, apparently, don't have Openness to Experience. Of course they do, others say, the problem is that the language does not provide enough variance of the related terms for proper statistical analysis. Some have found seven factors, some only three.

The second area is: Which factors predict what? Job outcome as leaders and salespeople has already been measured, and lots of research is currently being done in expanding the list. You need to search the literature to find just what you're looking for, unfortunately. Barrick and Mount's research are good places to start.

The third area is to make a model of personality. Costa and McCreae have built what they call the Five Factor Model of Personality which is an attempt to use the Big Five to provide a model of personality that can explain issues in personality from the cradle to the grave. They don't follow the lexical hypothesis, though, but favor a theory-driven approach.

Conclusion

Everybody is interested in personality, inasmuch as everybody interacts with themselves and other people. The Big Five is a convenient way to reduce personality into manageable bits. I hope this little piece has been entertaining and informative, and would like to receive lots of questions for a follow-up article.

Some literature and a link

About the history of the Big Five

Digman, John M. (1996) The curious history of the Five-Factor Model. In: Jerry S. Wiggins (ed.), The Five-Factor Model of Personality:Theoretical Perspectives chapter 1, pp. 1-20. New York: Guilford

John, Oliver P. (1990) The "big five" factor taxonomy: Dimension of personality in the natural language and in questionnaires. In: Lawrence A. Pervin (ed.), Handbook of Personality chapter 3. New York: Guilford

About the content of the Big Five

Barrick, M.R. and Mount, M.K. (1991) The Big Five Personality Dimensions and Job Performance: A meta-analysis Personnel Psychology 44, 1-26

Barrick, M.R., Mount, M.K. and Judge, T.A. (2001) The FFM Personality Dimensions and job performance: A meta-analysis of meta-analyses. International Journal of Selection and Assessment 9, 9-30.

Books with pictures

Howard, P.J. and Howard, J.M. (2001) Owner's Manual for Personality at Work, The: How the Big Five Personality Traits Affect Performance, Communication, Teamwork, Leadership, and Sales Austin, Texas: Bard Press

A link and a test

Being the most computer-savvy of Psychologists, prominent Big Five researchers have created a collaborative web site called The Personality Project.

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Describing and predicting behavior: The Big Five | 143 comments (101 topical, 42 editorial, 0 hidden)
I like personality tests (3.00 / 8) (#34)
by Cat Huggles on Sat Mar 26, 2005 at 08:14:18 PM EST

They ask you questions and then after you've answered them, tell your answers back to you!

I CHANGE MY MIND EVERY DAY! (1.00 / 9) (#39)
by communistpoet on Sat Mar 26, 2005 at 10:20:32 PM EST

I DONT BELIEVE IN SHIT YOU DUMB SHIT MOTHER FUCKER! YOU CANT PIN ME DOWN WITH SOME TEST!

We must become better men to make a better world.
Practical Applications (3.00 / 8) (#40)
by cronian on Sat Mar 26, 2005 at 10:22:39 PM EST

Ok, so who uses these things? Do you know of any companies that hire based on these tests? How can they be gamed?

Pyschological tests might actually predict something, but where is the fun in that. I firmly believe the best reason for studying psychology is to learn how to rig the tests in your favor.

According to Wikipedia's entry on Timothy Leary
When he[Timothy Leary] arrived in prison, he was given a standard psychological test that the prison used to assign inmates to appropriate work assignments. Having written the test himself, he was able to give the answers that got him a job working in the prison library.
.

So, how does this test work. I understand that gaming psychological tests can prove a useful skill.

We perfect it; Congress kills it; They make it; We Import it; It must be anti-Americanism
Leaders? We don't need no stinkin'... (2.20 / 5) (#42)
by Kasreyn on Sat Mar 26, 2005 at 10:45:09 PM EST

the notion that all the 16 types it covers are equally good but different - this, the Big Five research has shown, is not true. Most ENTJ's are better leaders than most INTP's, not just different types of leaders. This one issue does of course not invalidate all of the MBTI, which is a very good test.

*scratches head* Yes, and an INTP is likely to be a much better blue-sky researcher. Why are you suddenly measuring by leadership? What does it have to do with anything?

How would you refute the claims that have repeatedly been made, that the MBTI is nothing but a zodiac-style generalization? Ie., that it categorizes meaninglessly with positive labels for everyone. For instance, have there been any double-blind studies where multiple examiners applied the MBTI to the same person/people and came up with the same index?


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
Personality testing is a pseudoscience (2.83 / 6) (#47)
by Polyxena on Sun Mar 27, 2005 at 05:18:29 AM EST

There's a good entry on the Myer-Briggs here. The criticisms apply equally well here.

I have some probleme with the research (2.66 / 6) (#50)
by mcgrew on Sun Mar 27, 2005 at 07:51:25 AM EST

...or rather, the application of what has been found. Even your article takes an anti-human approach, "this is where this little cog of the machine fits best." And what's worse, nobody argues against it.

I would outlaw this kind of test were it up to me. It is as offensive as discrimination by color or sex. Now, were one to show these data to job seekers as guides to job satisfaction, I might encourage that.

"The entire neocon movement is dedicated to revoking mcgrew's posting priviliges. This is why we went to war with Iraq." -LilDebbie

Objections (2.71 / 7) (#55)
by trhurler on Sun Mar 27, 2005 at 03:01:29 PM EST

(This is a repost of an editorial comment thread, collapsed into one big post. I have adapted my argument somewhat, but the general thrust is as it was. I doubt anyone can come close to answering it.)

The problem with personality testing is not that people impose consistency on reality. It is that they impose imagination on reality. Almost all people have almost no capacity for honest introspection. Therefore, self reporting is basically useless unless you are already quite certain you can trust the subject and that the subject can trust his own judgement, both of which are among the things you're trying to determine.

(Original poster replied at this point that for some "important" tests, others observe the subject and report their opinions in addition to the test subject's replies.)

Other people tend to see you either as you see yourself, which is uninteresting, or as the exact opposite of what you see yourself as(which is no more interesting.) In fact, I have found that I can trivially convince anyone ranging from psychologists to random people on the street that I'm anything they want me to be(and I can make them want me to be almost anything if they're trying to find out what I am.) Of course, this may simply be a result of me being substantially more self aware and intelligent than they are, but the point remains: personality tests will give you an answer because they're designed to give you an answer.

Also, most people's insight into themselves is not just limited - it is wrong. They convince themselves that they are what other people tell them they are. They convince themselves that they are something they admire in other people. They convince themselves that they are what they fear. They convince themselves that they are whatever they think will lead to success. The point is, what they see as introspection is actually more akin to rationalization. Asking these people to describe themselves is useless, and asking other people to describe them is only going to lead to a description one of two things: either it will be the mask the person is wearing, or if that mask is rather poorly constructed, it will be whatever mask the person thinks he sees under it(which will be at best a guess anyway.)

The reason most companies don't bother testing to see who would make a good leader is twofold: first, because they know that people act vastly differently depending on their circumstances(see the Milgram prison experiment for one example, but there are other less dramatic cases also.) Second, because they know that most leaders in a hierarchy spend most of their time following anyway, and that characteristic is generally the more important of the two.

If you want to know why the social sciences are basically a failure, answer this: What would be the observable difference between these two scenarios:

1) Companies that do personality screening receive the benefits you describe because personality screening works really well.

2) Companies that do personality screening receive the benefits you describe because the mere fact of doing personality screening indicates a more rigorous overall selection process.

Cliff's Notes on the answer: There is no observable difference. The overall reason the social sciences are a failure is that it is indescribably difficult(perhaps impossible,) to design truly controlled experiments to test hypotheses of limited scope within these sciences. This has always been true, and apparently always will be.

--
'God dammit, your posts make me hard.' --LilDebbie

Thanks! (none / 0) (#63)
by roffe on Mon Mar 28, 2005 at 04:17:16 AM EST

This article was in fact written eight years after I left college. Good to learn that I haven't lost my touch.


--
Rolf Marvin Bøe Lindgren
roffe@extern.uio.no


Personality tests are a tool of Wal-Mart, Manpower (1.53 / 15) (#65)
by freemumia on Mon Mar 28, 2005 at 08:36:00 AM EST

Interesting that you should mention "PERSONALITY". Like I've said, it looks like we can say goodbye to alternative lifestyles and pure rivers!! Goodbye!!! Fun while it lasted!? Don't give up hope. Sanctity of life, indeed! Wal-Mart can wipe out 41,630 BILINGUAL African-American wetlands in Kabul, all in the name of "regime change"? Obviously, that makes it okay, then!! (I am being sarcastic!!!! It is not okay, you understand.) I suppose, I am not one of Pat Robertson's outpost of single-celled henchmen!!? I reject graft and hypocrisy!!! Don't make me laugh!! The truth is at paganafricanamericansforjustice.org! What next!? Will the morons come to repress me for being a Native American!? Will my atheist friends now be electrocuted just because they're woodlands!!!? Really it's open season on nudists!! We demand the U.S. get out of Brooklyn!!!! As a vegan Iraqi, as everybody knows I am humorless!!! Cowboys! SINCE 1952, 38,237 HERBIVOROUS whales have been denied in FRANCE.

Jungian Personality Profile (none / 0) (#68)
by JosephK on Mon Mar 28, 2005 at 09:24:33 AM EST

In college I took a test called the Jungian Personality Profile, and the only part I remembered was that I scored 99% logical, 1% emotional on a sliding scale. What am I? Spock?
HTML is Dead.
WTF? (none / 0) (#72)
by Mr.Surly on Mon Mar 28, 2005 at 11:34:23 AM EST

How did this editorial abortion make it past editing:

[Verbatim]
The story begins with Gordon Allport and H.S. Odbert, who hypothesized that

    Those individual differences that are most ...

Why does the sentence end in the middle, and a new paragraph start?


I never see the point of personality tests (2.75 / 4) (#80)
by TheGreenLantern on Mon Mar 28, 2005 at 05:29:21 PM EST

Essentially the message always boils down to: "You are beautiful and unique snowflake, but we're going to find a way to catagorize and label you anyway"

It hurts when I pee.
Skeptical (2.66 / 3) (#83)
by bugmaster on Mon Mar 28, 2005 at 09:18:41 PM EST

Sorry, I remain very skeptical about all these personality tests, whether they're lexical, Meyers-Briggs, or whatever.

First of all, what exactly are these tests measuring ? Sure, a test can tell you that person X has a low "agreeableness", but how do you actually test that ? Can you make any concrete predictions of a person's behavior based on the results of the test ? I am talking about specific predictions here, not horoscopes to the extent of "you like good things, and tend to avoid bad things".

Secondly, where is the hard cold data that validates the design of these tests ? For example, consider red/green color blindness. Such color blindness is much common in males. We can posit a hypothesis that the color blindness gene is carried on the X chromosome, of which males only have a single copy. By analyzing the DNA of lots of people (male and female, colorblind and not), it was possible to discover the genes responsible for color blindness.

Where is something like this in relation to personality tests ? All I see are lexical analyses of adjectives, which are fun and all, but don't really predict anything verifyable. It's fine to say, "most ENTJ types are better leaders", but what does this actually mean ? How do you measure leadership with the same precision that you can measure weight, length, conductivity, etc. ?

So, in summary, personality tests make vague predictions that cannot be verified experimentally, because there's nothing definite there for them to verify. They are similar to horoscopes -- scientific-sounding horoscopes, but horoscopes nonetheless. This has been my perception, anyway.
>|<*:=

team selection|act|aid gut| academic filter (none / 1) (#93)
by jago25 on Tue Mar 29, 2005 at 07:35:41 AM EST

I know you hate this sort of thing but here in the UK we get flung together with random people and this is MUCH worse. My god I've been in some shocking teams; 5 leaders all fighting, 5 imaginatives all dreaming, groups of workers arguing over fundamental beliefs that split the company right down the middle; do we believe in liberty? How many times have you seen these arguments in your company? It really does pay to put together a varied and compatible team and I'd do anything to be in one.

I can see lots of objections to these tests but I don't think these objections came from rational thought.

Nobody likes to be classified but you are not powerless against the test, you are powerless to see what they REALLY want in the candidate.

There have been times in the past when I have actually answered such screening questions truthfully - oh how ignorant I was. For example, I applied for a job at a local DIY store and one of the auto phone screening questions was `Do you like to present yourself smartly?` well, that wasn't easy and not relevent! This is a DIY store - the experts don't dress smartly! And what does smartly mean?; intelligently or formal?
And the test asked me nothing about my experience of DIY terminology; i.e. drill bit sizes, metric and imperial measurements etc

Instead what I needed to do what find out exactly the sort of person they want and act to that goal . This screws the whole thing. The selected candidates are the liers. You get a workforce full of actors & liers. And the few that aren't may be the wrong people for the job because you've spent your time selecting people for the job rather than deciding the sort of person you want.

Personality tests skit the bigger picture of WHO IS THE RIGHT PERSON FOR THE JOB? A used car salesman is different to a wheelchair salesman, yet the used car salesman would win in these tests.

Nevertheless I would use these tests but only as a backup to my gut feeling - to aid the human process rather than weeding out CVs beforehand or similar.

When these tests combine with the academic filter we got a bigger problem:

I'm finding it very hard to get the job that these tests say suit me. The reason why is because I'm not very good at academic study, yet I need to do this to get the job.

Perhaps these tests could be used by universities to encourage those who fit the course so we don't waste our time in a career that we want to do, perhaps are pushed to do but that doesn't fit.

I'd love to see this article in 2105 (none / 0) (#108)
by jolly st nick on Tue Mar 29, 2005 at 02:51:07 PM EST

It's interesting to speculate how an article like this would look if it were written a hundred years from now. I suspect that we won't look at personality traits as fundamental, but as results of a combination of brain features and environmental factors. I also suspect that this view of matters will not lead to neurological determiism, but more effective tools for modifying long term behavior patterns.

Take the following cluster personality traits: risk taking/stimulus seeking, carelessness, inconsideration, rudeness. These all can result from ADHD, which will probably turn out to be a fairly well characterizable set of neurlogical features that lie at one end of the normal spectrum. Furthermore, not only can ADHD be managed with medication, people can be given organizational trainign that allows them to function higher on the conscientiousness scale, and "people reading" training to improve their ability to track others' reactions to them.

frankly baffled (none / 1) (#110)
by massivefubar on Tue Mar 29, 2005 at 08:18:24 PM EST

I do not see anything more useful or informative in this set of pigeonholes than in the old descriptions of personality based on the four humors or the 12 signs of the zodiac. The only difference I can see is that this particular method of describing personality is less interesting and hence less likely to be an accurate reflection of the true variety and weirdness of actual human beings.

Offhand, the descriptions sound downright silly. In agreeableness, it is suggested that the agreeable person is more likely to be submissive and concerned with the well-being of other people. That is always possible, I suppose, but I believe the bard had it right when he said that a man can smile and smile and be a villain. Plenty of "agreeable" people who never contradict a word you say are simply passive-aggressive or just have a different definition of what being polite entails. It doesn't mean that they don't go ahead and do as they damn well please. Ask any Southern belle.

I like those personality tests (2.33 / 3) (#111)
by Armin Hardwood on Tue Mar 29, 2005 at 08:56:29 PM EST

that tell me which video game character i would be. they're far more insightful than any of this big 5 nonsense.


What "research"? (none / 1) (#112)
by badtux on Tue Mar 29, 2005 at 09:30:23 PM EST

Just curious. I am aware of the state of the art in personality test research. Basically, it is rather more limited than what you imply. There is no such thing as a personality test that is reliable for all persons of all ages and all cultures. What a personality test measures is how well your test answers agree with what third parties in your environment would think about you if given an opinion survey. They are normed by giving opinion surveys to the family and friends of those who take the tests (people who typically are college students attracted to the test norming sessions by promises of money or extra class credit). It is very rare for any personality test to be normed against anybody other than middle-class, predominantly white college students, and if you are not a middle-class white college student the results of a personality test have about as much validity as a Ouiji board. Sorry, that's the truth -- statistically speaking, these tests simply are not reliable indicators of personality traits for the majority of the work force.

Given the limitations of the norming processes for these tests, I would state that I would be strongly suspicious of any "research" that says that companies that use personality tests work better than comparable companies that do not unless said research had passed peer review muster and been replicated multiple times by people with no interest in the outcome. "Research" produced by the actual publisher of the test is, basically, utterly useless, typically suffering woefully from selection bias, lack of peer review, inadequate control group, and expectancy effects on the part of the researchers affecting the quality of the data gathered.

- Badtux the Research Penguin
In a time of chimpanzees, I was a penguin

I just started reading.. (none / 0) (#113)
by hangareighteen on Wed Mar 30, 2005 at 01:00:26 AM EST

Gravity's Rainbow,  by Thomas Pynchon.

related story: (none / 0) (#118)
by lostincali on Wed Mar 30, 2005 at 01:53:14 PM EST

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1804&e=1&u=/washpost /a4010_2005mar26

This story talks about the use of personality tests in the hiring process. I didn't know the practice was as common as the article makes it sound.


"The least busy day [at McDonalds] is Monday, and then sales increase throughout the week, I guess as enthusiasm for life dwindles."

Dodgy Experimental Design (none / 1) (#119)
by czolgosz on Wed Mar 30, 2005 at 02:08:19 PM EST

So, let me get this right: they started by picking out words in English that they thought were relevant. That's the first instance of the researchers subjectively cherry-picking the data.

They then did some kind of cluster analysis to group terms by semantic proximity (however they defined that), yielding 181 clusters. If they manually intervened then, that's another layer of data selection.

Clark then did factor analysis on the clusters and found 12 factors. So what did he do? Added four more because he thought that they belonged there. More subjective data-tweaking.

But that's not the only problem here. More fundamentally, what finally falls out of this process, even if the data reduction has much more integrity than it appears to, is nothing but a distillation of the inherent prejudices within English as regards personality.

You can see the absurdity of this if you use a physical rather than psychological phenomenon as the starting point. Such an analysis would show that the sun "rises," that night "falls," that there are "falling stars," that every month there's a "new moon," etc. These are remnants of the ancient magical, geocentric world view. But Newton's laws could never be found through such a process. All you can find is a collection of naive folk explanations. It's likely that such tests will be reproducible, but only because, due to cultural inertia and individual laziness, those are the terms people use when discussing such phenomena. This cannot disguise the fact that this is a deeply unscientific process.

As a means of taking a sort of geological core sample of pop-psychology terms over the centuries, this might actually achieve a degree of success. But reproducibility of such tests is as much an indication of the consistency of prejudice as it is a sign that they have any scientific validity.

I am no more surprised to see such tests used by employers than I am to see UK employers still so often resorting to graphology. Since so many managers are shallow and arbitrary, I'm sure they're easily convinced that both personality testing and graphology are evidence of their own brilliance and compassion, and would respond accordingly to a survey.

But let's take a more operational, Popperian tack: if these bozos are so scientific, what would the means be to falisfy their theory? Any monkey with a statistics package on a univeristy computer can be taught to massage data and drive a curve through any set of data points, but that says nothing about the correctness of their experimental design. And, more colloquially, what is the theory actually telling you, and which otherwise unexplained phenomena does the theory predict? Reproducibility and predictive power are entirely different things. With self-selected data and enough number-crunching, reproducibility isn't even that challenging a hurdle.


Why should I let the toad work squat on my life? --Larkin
What does it prove/predict? (none / 1) (#125)
by danharan on Thu Mar 31, 2005 at 10:52:57 PM EST

Polyxena links to an interesting article in the skeptic's dictionary.

Ah, yes, the Forer effect. Can you reply to some of these criticisms? I'm now confused as to what personality tests actually reveal: what others in their social group will say (perhaps privately) about an other person, or what a person admits or likes to think about themselves?

I remember taking the MBTI a few times, once by a consultant certified by CPP. Testing as INTP at the time, both my roommate and myself agreed that indeed I did prefer, e.g., chatting with a few people in a party than be the center of attention But has this actually been measured? Testing for each of these propensities they mention must have taken a lot of time and money... or did they take shortcuts? Pointers to further reading in the field that addresses these types of questions would be much appreciated!

Describing and predicting behavior: The Big Five | 143 comments (101 topical, 42 editorial, 0 hidden)
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