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Is the Universe Really Consistent?

By localroger in Op-Ed
Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 08:28:24 AM EST
Tags: Science (all tags)
Science

The Scientific Method has allowed us to do awesome things, but this has come at a price we seldom notice. We rarely remember the hidden assumption at the root of all science -- an assumption which was considered radical and improbable as recently as 300 years ago.

Science works on the assumption that the Universe is consistent. And while the mighty works of Science remind us that this is not a bad assumption, Science cannot prove the Universe is consistent because it cannot really address the matter of inconsistent things at all.


The Universe, scientists assume, may be obscure; but it does not lie. An experiment which works in San Diego will, if it reveals Truth, also work in Oslo. An electron in the vicinity of Alpha Centauri will have the same properties as one in your little finger. The Universe does not evaluate the merits of your experimental apparattus and decide upon the outcome, factoring in your charitable donations and hair color; it works on simple, repeatable principles which can be revealed and exploited with perfect trust once they are adequately documented.

On the whole this assumption has worked well. Careful measurement and correlation reveal that the rules by which the world works were much the same millions of years in the past and half-way to the Hubble Limit as they are here and now on Earth. And those rules have suggested to us powerful modalities by which we can express our collective will upon the environment in which we live.

But there are problems. The simple rules which describe the motion of astronomical bodies are not consistent with the simple rules that describe the behavior of subatomic particles, and attempts to merge the two simple systems are not so simple.

Most scientists quietly (or not so quietly) believe the Universe is infinite and self-sufficient, because the idea of Gods and such ruin the perfect consistency upon which their trade depends. However, it is a simple matter to divide the Hubble limit by the Planck constant and show that the Universe is finite -- it contains a finite number of particles, whose positions and velocities and states represent a finite amount of information -- About 10^84 bits, give or take a couple of orders of magnitude, if the Universe really exists as scientists tend to describe it. Science offers no credible idea what, if anything, exists other than that finite set of theoretically observable particles.

And humans, despite living in a sea of technological wonder, persist in believing in very unscientific things like ghosts, luck, gods, and ESP. This includes a lot of very credible humans who have risked reputations and careers to report on experiences they themselves have found incredible.

The Human Experience

It is in physics that one finds the purest expression of the Scientific Method, but physics is not the only line of thought that styles itself a science. Geologists do not have the physicists' luxury in staging experiments and testing for repeatability; they must wait for the Earth to Do Something and then see if the Something they observe is consistent with their theories. Medical researchers are in an even worse fix, since nothing quite ever happens the same way twice in complicated biological systems; they work around this by designing double-blind protocols with statistical tests, to eliminate as much of this inconsistency as possible.

Then there are fields like sociology and psychology, which physicists tend to sneeringly deride. Sometimes these "soft" scientists sneer back that physicists don't have to deal with phenomena that lie to them. It's a real problem, with which people like James Randi have shown scientists do not deal well.

My question is, suppose the Universe is lying to physicists? Would we be able to tell?

A Thought Experiment

Let's consider for a moment that we are residents not of this Universe, however it works, but of the universe of the computer game DOOM. By this I don't mean that we are players, or plugged into it like the residents of the Matrix, but that we are very advanced AI characters in the game.

The DOOMiverse bears a lot of similarities to our own, enough that humans feel comfortable moving in for occasional visits. As permanent residents we might make up theories about where our world came from, and about the periodic visitors who are noticeably smarter and faster than us. We probably wouldn't notice the absence of electrons and galaxies, since those don't figure much in the daily life of flesh-eating zombies.

The main difference between the DOOMiverse and the Universe is that we all know the DOOMiverse is simpler than it appears. Things which are important -- things which are likely to be noticed -- are implemented with all the versimilitude the hardware platform can muster. Things which don't matter at the moment are forgotten or frozen. It's only sensible, since computers are limited and human players want the richest possible experience from the resources at their disposal.

Objects in the DOOMiverse are represented at a high level of abstraction, rather than as the sum of a huge number of component parts. This is more efficient. When something is needed which is not part of the basic world, like an electronic device (no electrons!) or a glimpse of exterior sky, it is coded as an exception, with emulated functionality. On the other hand, anyone attempting to practice the Scientific Method in the DOOMiverse would be, well, doomed. If you push too hard on the model it breaks; it's only meant to be observed at a particular scale.

In the real Universe, we assume that the stipples on a stippled wall do not move around when our back is turned; but few of us ever bother to test this proposition. We don't really notice when the computer fakes it for us by generating random textures on the fly. By definition the DOOM game engine is not consistent; it is putting on an elaborate sham to make itself look richer and more detailed than it really is. If a DOOMizen were to come up with the DOOM equivalent of an electron microscope, the game authors at Id would probably write in an exception to show them something appropriate to the fake physics of the DOOMiverse.

The Quantum Observer

Scientists simply assume our own Universe is not pulling any tricks like this on us. At least, most of them do. The problem is that in some very repeatable experiments testing the properties of small particles, it appears very much that the Universe is looking over our shoulder and arranging the results to suit. Explaining how it does this without invoking faeries is one of the holy grails of quantum physics.

I have this persistent nagging doubt, though, especially on Tuesdays and Thursdays. What if the Universe is really supposed to be simple, as described by General Relativity, with analog curved spacetime and electromagnetic radiation made up of infinitely divisible waves? What if the Universe, like the DOOMiverse, is trying to make the best out of a more limited information budget, and as a shortcut represents wave energy as a sea of particles and particles themselves with finite precision? What if the Universe only bothers with quantum effects when we set up some bizarre situation that makes them noticeable?

Most quantum physicists don't really believe that "observer" means a human being; they assume that some simpler arrangement of circumstances, presumably not even living, can serve a similar function. But what if they're wrong?

The Question of God

If the Universe is not consistent and is pulling DOOM-like tricks to dress itself up for our benefit, does this imply that there is a cosmic equivalent to Id Software which designed it? The simple answer is "yes," but like the Universe itself the situation isn't that simple.

There is a poetic simplicity to the idea that the Universe is simple enough to have organized itself, and many scientists are allergic to anything that contradicts that idea. You can hardly blame them, since it wasn't that long ago that people were burnt at the stake for believing things that aren't even considered controversial today, and a persistent minority seems to want desperately to turn back the clock.

The idea of a vast pool table loaded with little balls was attractive to 19th-century scientists, because it fit the model of the world they lived in. The universe was big and complicated simply because it was made up of a lot of balls. But growing up with computers as I did, I find another concern paramount; physicists seem oblivious to the information costs of the schemes they propose. Given the contract to implement the Matrix, would you really start with 10-dimensional strings, or just fake them in the rare situations where their behavior becomes noticeable?

Even Stephen Wolfram, who has made a huge break from the dead-particle school of physics, envisions only the simplest possible computing elements populating his universe in vast numbers. Wolfram's "Four lines of code in Mathematica" are really what all physicists are trying to find -- the simple, indivisible, and consistent elements of reality.

Suppose, however, that the Universe started out with a very simple pattern recognition system, aimed at extending itself by simulating complex situations. It takes about 330 bits to locate a resting proton to Planck precision within a hypersphere whose circumference is the Hubble limit, and about 220 bits to locate an electron. But a hydrogen atom, containing both, can be represented with just a few more bits than the proton -- it's about the same as a proton, but with an internal state representing its electron's energy. Much greater gains can be had by representing the rest of the periodic table as individual entities rather than collections of subatomic particles; the internal states get complicated, but the reduced particle load vastly more than makes up for the extra work.

(Naturally, a similar loss in capacity would be felt breaking things down to quarks. How often does that happen outside of particle accelerators? Cosmic phenomena like supernovae can be handled in bulk, much the way we treat problems in hydrodynamics.)

One can readily imagine the algorithm that recognized this situation extending itself into chemistry and higher levels of abstraction; it's had several billion years to perfect its methods. Remember, this is a much bigger system than the one that does the texture mapping for DOOM. Our own minds would all be a relatively small part of it.

The result might be a Universe that sometimes, subtly, displays elements of consciousness but at an aloof distance, pretending with great versimilitude that it is just a much larger bunch of dumb particles banging around than it could ever hope to actually represent as individual particles.

The Other End of the Telescope

Lest it seem that I am doing gross violence to Occam's Razor, let me point out that a lot of people have problems with the consistency of the Universe which go far beyond single photons and double slits.

Fourteen years or so ago I dabbled a bit in New Age practices. One of the things I tried was Tarot reading, which I always drew and interpreted for myself. Being skeptical (I got into it on something of a dare) I was a fanatic for shuffling, always salting old cards throughout the deck and both cutting and shuffling ten or twenty times before doing a reading. As with my later gambling adventures I kept notes. The results were of course purely subjective, but nothing short of startling. Never did I get a single reading which appeared "random," unless I deliberately attempted to apply a layout drawn for one question to a totally unrelated one.

On one occasion I did four readings in a row on closely related aspects of the same question. From a deck of 78 cards, in a 10 card pattern, I got eight cards in the same position all four times. If I had been doing Tarot readings at the rate of one per second since the Big Bang, my chances of seeing that happen would be vanishingly small. The fact that the cards addressed the question I asked eloquently is almost trivial by comparison.

Of course there were no witnesses, and you have only my own word about my efforts to prevent a slug of cards from re-emerging after a shuffle, or even that it happened at all. I have no doubt that if I tried to do a similar experiment on TV the cards would emerge in blissfully random and meaningless patterns. Yet this is a thing that, from my perspective, really happened and I must incorporate it into my world-view somehow. Even after all these years I get goosebumps thinking about it.

At the time the only theory that made sense to me -- and the only one that still does -- is that at some level, when a deck of cards is sufficiently shuffled, the Universe is willing to forget the order they are in. Then it is possible for an entity -- a hacker, if you will -- to influence the order in which they are reassembled when the deck is dealt, in order to communicate with you. But there are checks on the system, just as human-built computers try to be safe from hacking; and however much the world may be influenced in this way, the results must be plausible according to some standard which isn't quite perfect.

The idea is, of course, totally insane, except for the fact that the vast majority of humans believe something similar is going on all the time.

It's tempting to draw parallels with the collapse of the state vector in quantum mechanics, and many magic-practicing people do exactly that; but whatever is going on has nothing directly to do with the repeatable and verifiable weirdnesses that occur at Planck scale. It may be a similar kind of hack, but the Planck-scale hacks have been incorporated into the story the Universe consistently wants to tell us.

As for where these hacker-entities (generally called spirits) come from, one is led to speculate that one of the things represented at a high level of abstraction might be consciousness itself; and as with any object represented as a single data structure within a computer, it might be possible to induce extra unofficial instances of entire minds. Some of these might be people who no longer exist corporeally (e.g. are dead); some might be made up from scratch as an assemblage of generic elements; and some might be copies at varying degrees of perfection of people who are actually walking around.

The Observer Redux

Another possibility, which is very plausible to me after my later gambling adventures, is that there is a universal human inability to perceive randomness for what it is. Such a fatal flaw would certainly explain why the casino industry exists, if nothing else. My own experiences were startling enough to shake me out of the militant atheism into which I'd settled after rejecting my parents' religious beliefs at the age of 15.

Frogs, we have been taught for decades, cannot see anything that isn't about the size and shape of and moving like a mosquito. If humans have a similar blind spot, it would be for randomness. We persist in finding patterns where elaborate mathematical analysis can prove there are none, and we fail to notice others which are right in our faces. Yet unlike the frogs, which sensibly hang out where there are bugs it can see, humans can't get enough of this blind spot. We go to casinos by the million, deliberately engage in all kinds of rituals, and seek out random things to interpret as if they are somehow meaningful. These experiences are so fulfilling that people regularly destroy themselves in various ways seeking them out.

Scientists decry this kind of activity and their arguments make a lot of sense; but to someone who has had an extraordinary experience, someone else who has sensibly avoided the extraordinary situation has no credibility. And scientists who enter these situations with open minds tend to come out saying things that ruin their reputations with other scientists. Think of Wilhelm Reich, or Timothy Leary.


In the end, whatever extraordinary things are accomplished by the Scientific Method, and whatever extraordinary things are experienced by people who are willing to experiment with other techniques, the question of whether the Universe is consistent may not be answerable. We may be able to say reliably that either we are all crazy or the Universe is crazy, but not, with any certainty, which of those two statements is the one on which to depend.

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Poll
The Universe is made of...
o Particles 2%
o Waves 4%
o Equations 13%
o Bits 14%
o 10-dimensional Strings 13%
o Stephen Wolfram's ego 19%
o localroger's ego 10%
o K5 is the Universe 20%

Votes: 122
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Is the Universe Really Consistent? | 396 comments (371 topical, 25 editorial, 0 hidden)
Why An Inconsistant Universe Cannot Be Tolerated (3.25 / 8) (#3)
by thelizman on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 08:58:40 PM EST

This may mindfuck some people, but one of the reasons an inconsistant universe cannot be tolerated by science is because it then alludes to the possibility of things in the universe behaving with a degree of will and intelligence. If science kills God, then it cannot allow God to rise up against it.
--

"Our language is sufficiently clumsy enough to allow us to believe foolish things." - George Orwell
Ruminations (3.70 / 20) (#4)
by medham on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 09:03:03 PM EST

First of all, it's quite clear to me that Dr. Lloyd at the MIT Divinity School has proven that the universe is a computer. The 10^120 coinicidences between information theory and physics is just too much to ignore.

Therefore, I think, it's quite clear that the universe is a simulation. The singularity occurred at sone point in the past, and we now live in simulation devised by hyperintelligent machines. This is on a far greater scale than The Matrix, realize; this is the whole damn universe we're talking about here.

Now some of us are what we call "avatars," or "turkeygoads." These turkeygoads are in essence the manifestations of the designing machines' consciousness here on Earth (and elsewhere). Castaneda was clearly one, as is Ruth Westenheimer.

The real Big Bang was the generative seed moment of the multivariate cellular automata simulation that determines this turkeygoadheim, or "universe." One of these days, however, due to entropic principles, some born human is going to become a turkeygoad, and "jump the shark," as they say. A battle will then be fought, high-and-mighty, between the turkeygoadist aspirants and the Rimmers of the Rule. Many Shuvs and Zuuls will know what it is to be roasted in the depths of the Slor that day, I can tell you!

The real 'medham' has userid 6831.

Please clarify (3.91 / 12) (#11)
by izogi on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 09:38:36 PM EST

Science works on the assumption that the Universe is consistent.

Where did you hear this? I'd appreciate a reference.

Last time I checked, science was interested in the observation, identification, description, experimental investigation, and theoretical explanation of phenomena. How does this imply that consistency is required, or that science should seek to prove that anything is consistent?

Arguably most astronomy and cosmology isn't even a science, because there's almost no experimentation involved. (I'm saying this as an astronomer myself.) It depends how you look at it, of course.


- izogi


Other ideas about information (4.16 / 6) (#13)
by _Quinn on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 09:44:51 PM EST

[As an aside, past a certain number of times (about a dozen, IIRC), continuing to shuffle a deck reduces its randomness/dissimilarity to its original state.]

In "The Beginning There Was The Bit" ( http://www.quantum.univie.ac.at/links/newscientist/bit.html )  Hans Christian van Baeyer proposes an "underlying idea" for quantum mechanics, one which like the laws of thermodynamics, and other scientific systems without philosophical questions about interpretation, has a colloquial form: "An elementary systems carries one (and only one) bit of information."  From this, quantization of physcical systems follows naturally: if there is not a infinite amount of information available to describe a system, of necessity, it must be discrete.  Randomness also follows: if I observe a bit's worth information (say, which direction is the electron's spin along the x axis?), it follows that, lacking any further information to give you, that the next bit you extract will be random (the direction of the electron's spin along the y axis).  Read the article for more information, but progress has been made in generalizing the theory, rederiving Schrodinger's equations, and making a prediction (a Shannon theorem for entangled quantum information).

Regarding the human penchant for pattern matching and wishful thinking: it's not just that we have a hard time identifying randomness; it's that we confuse the measured randomness (e.g., a string of ten zeroes compresses well == is less random) with  the randomness of its generator(s).  (That is, while a sequence of ten zeroes will happen one in 1024 times (for a fair coin), the probability that  after nine zero flips the tenth is also zero is still 1/2; in fact, it's exactly this that makes the sequence of zeroes so rare.)  Wolfram's pet CA (forgot the number already, sorry) is exactly the opposite way: the generator has no randomness, but the sequence it generates is totally random.

So you could be right -- we may be seeing randomness/complexity from a very simple generator, like a simple geometry, with the complication of a "limited information budget" -- one bit per elementary (quantum) system.  For classical systems -- with large numbers of elementary quantum systems -- there's enough information so that MAX_INT approximates INFINITY well.  For quantum systems, there isn't.  It's an insight into the wave-particle duality as well: simple model, "not enough" bits.

-_Quinn
Reality Maintenance Group, Silver City Construction Co., Ltd.

a few words on ESP.. (1.70 / 10) (#14)
by krkrbt on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 09:45:28 PM EST

I suspect that ESP is practical - Ingo Swann remote-viewed several things about Jupiter before the space-probes visited. This included seeing a ring around the planet - people laughed at him, and rejected all his findings. And we all know how that turned out... :) I'm going to be learning ESP, just as soon as I get this visualization thing down... I've found the instructor that I want to study under, if he'll have me. The guy only does a class a year or so, in the memory of Jose Silva (ESP system developer), iirc. Check out Swann's site at http://www.biomindsuperpowers.com/, specifically this page for his take on the Jupiter mind-probe.

To The Layman (2.50 / 8) (#16)
by JChen on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 09:46:34 PM EST

I've read this three times. I still don't get it. What are you trying to argue? The universe is infinite? Or finite? All these examples have utterly failed to show me anything, other than imaginations running rampant. Please. For the love of God. Shorten it or make it so that people other than astrophysicists, mad scientists, cult leaders and philosophers can understand what your point is.

Let us do as we say.
Just plain wrong (3.46 / 13) (#17)
by danny on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 09:53:19 PM EST

Science works on the assumption that the Universe is consistent.

Ummm, no. That might have been one of the axioms of some logical positivists, but it's neither necessary for science nor assumed by most science. And there is no one "Scientific Method".

Pretty much all human activities assume the world has some kind of consistency - local consistency as it were. And science certainly focuses on this more than (say) synchronized swimming does. But some "unified consistency" of the entire universe is no more necessary to most science than it is to the latter. (Concerns about universal consistency really only feature in some cosmology, afaik.)

The appeal to Quantum Mechanics is just hand-waving - frankly, arguments along the lines of "QM is mysterious therefore maybe X" are not just feeble but so common as to be extremely boring.

And yes, we are biased towards detecting certain kinds of patterns above others. But that's a result of our evolutionary and cultural history and is something studied by scientists, not "decried" by them. A good argument can be made that perceptual and cognitive biases actually explain human religious belief...

Danny.
[900 book reviews and other stuff]

Yes. (3.33 / 6) (#20)
by Apuleius on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 10:04:02 PM EST

That's my default answer until one finds evidence showing otherwise. Until then, I am a mortal man, whose time on earth is finite, and who must therefore have default answers on hand for questions such as this.


There is a time and a place for everything, and it's called college. (The South Park chef)
Randomness (4.55 / 18) (#23)
by ucblockhead on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 10:11:53 PM EST

The deal with the Tarot cards is not that the Universe is somehow not doing randomness. The trouble is that your brain, as a biological system built to detect patterns, is not built to detect randomness. If the brain can't detect a pattern that exists, it will often create a false pattern that doesn't exist.

Experiments have been done in which people have been asked to generate random patterns. People invariably fail and produce partially predictable patterns, and one of the prime ways that they fail is that they avoid patterns that "look" nonrandom but, of course, could easily appear in a true random sequence.

Try the Tarot card experiment again. If you don't get similar results, then it really was just random chance the first time.

I'd also suggest that the occurrance was not as remarkable as you think. For one, you'd have reported any pattern that seemed "remarkable" to you. Seven cards in the same position. Six cards in the same position. Five cards in the same position. What are the odds that a give set of four Tarot readings seem "remarkable" in any way?

Not as high as you'd think, I think. It's like asking a thousand people to give you a "random" pattern of five coin flips. Not one of them will ever say "heads heads heads heads tails" because that's not random. But it is, of course.

Finally, it seems to me that your "experiment" proves the exact opposite of what you say. If the Universe really is "faking it" behind the scenes, and generating reality on the fly when we are not looking, then you would expect to see more randomness, not less. The universe would, for example, not bother to track all the positions of Tarot cards while your shuffling, instead, it would just produce a random pattern when you look. That is, after all, your "DOOMiverse" analogy...textures are generated on the fly to save time.
-----------------------
This is k5. We're all tools - duxup

About the tarot reading... (3.66 / 3) (#27)
by Giant Space Hamster on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 10:27:31 PM EST

I'm not too sure what that proves. Sure, the probability of such a thing is small, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. People win the lottery every day.

I think it's probable that some sort of pattern would have shown up, and you would have picked it out. I think you're ascribing too much weight to this one incident.

-------------------------------------------
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.
-- Bertrand Russell

Universe consistency vs. Theory consistency... (4.22 / 9) (#31)
by aziegler on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 10:32:46 PM EST

A good read in this vein is Robert Sawyer's Calculating God. The aliens in that book essentially accepted that the universe is, and any theories that we generate are abstractions of what is. We humans spend as much time spinning our wheels defending our theories as we do generating them and demonstrating them experimentally, even when they are shown to be wrong or there are multiple possible answers which disagree on the specifics (cf. many-worlds vs. observer phenomenon).

IMO, the universe is consistent -- but our theories are not necessarily consistent with the universe. Thus, if it does turn out to be possible to have FTL around Sirius, it is perfectly consistent with the reality of the universe -- but our explanations will have to be updated.

-austin

Okay (4.00 / 19) (#34)
by manobes on Sat Jun 08, 2002 at 10:51:41 PM EST

First of all, from an editorial perspective I found this a little hard to read... Probably my zealot like attachment to atheistic scientism :) I have some random comments...

Most scientists quietly (or not so quietly) believe the Universe is infinite and self-sufficient, because the idea of Gods and such ruin the perfect consistency upon which their trade depends.

Umm, no. We believe the Universe is expanding indefinately (and actually speeding up) because that's what the observations suggest. If you can come up with a plausible alternative explanation, that fits all the other data, feel free to step up to the plate.

However, it is a simple matter to divide the Hubble limit by the Planck constant and show that the Universe is finite

What are you trying to show here? Divideing the Hubble constant by the Placnk constant produces a number. It even has units...

Do you understand what you're talking about?

About 10^84 bits, give or take a couple of orders of magnitude, if the Universe really exists as scientists tend to describe it.

That number is not arrived at in the way you suggest.

Science offers no credible idea what, if anything, exists other than that finite set of theoretically observable particles.

Perhaps because there's no credible evidence that anything other than that set of particles does exist.

And humans, despite living in a sea of technological wonder, persist in believing in very unscientific things like ghosts, luck, gods, and ESP. This includes a lot of very credible humans who have risked reputations and careers to report on experiences they themselves have found incredible.

And??? None of those "credible" humans has ever produced a repeatable test. See what James Randi has to say about that, since you cite him below.

I was going to go on. But I haven't got the energy. Your whole point seems to be "science could be wrong". To which a scientist would respond, "well maybe".

but to someone who has had an extraordinary experience, someone else who has sensibly avoided the extraordinary situation has no credibility.

The trouble is these experiance either turn out to be personal, or non-repeatable, or both.

And scientists who enter these situations with open minds tend to come out saying things that ruin their reputations with other scientists. Think of Wilhelm Reich, or Timothy Leary.

I don't know about Leary, but Reich has been thoughrouly debunked. It's not like scietists just go out like attack dogs after those who disagree with them. Typically they produce arguements and evidence. Again, read some more of James Randi, IIRC he even discussed Reich once.


No one can defend creationism against the overwhelming scientific evidence of creationism. -- Big Sexxy Joe


David Hume (4.95 / 21) (#49)
by The Solitaire on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 12:02:39 AM EST

David Hume recognized this problem centuries ago... Essentially what you seem to be talking about is called "The problem of induction".

For those that don't know, induction is a reasoning technique that we use on a daily basis in everyday life. Essentially, it allows one to draw a general rule from a set of specific observations. A classic example is: If I see many different ravens over a period of time, and notice that they all are black, I might conclude that all ravens are black. This seems perfectly sensible to most people (including me).

However, the problem comes in when you try to justify your use of induction itself. How do we know that induction is a good form of reasoning (though not perfect)? The obvious answer is "Well, I've used induction lots of times, and it nearly never leads me astray, so it must be good."

But herein lies a problem - this argument is itself a form of induction. Since the question that is at issue is whether or not we can use induction reliably, it is clearly not acceptable to use it in its own justification. Essentially, there is no (satisfactory, IMHO) way out of this dilemma.

Since science makes use of induction, and induction itself is in doubt, then all of science is potentially on shaky ground. What can we do about it? Well, we can try to come up with another way of justifying induction, but that's about it. Science is stuck using methods that may lead us to false conclusions... even though we are doing everything right.

PS - For those that want to tell me that science is abductive, not inductive, I think the same argument applies to abduction.

I need a new sig.

On Randomness (4.75 / 16) (#53)
by The Solitaire on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 12:22:36 AM EST

As a matter of fact, there does seem to be a human "blind-spot" for randomness. Numerous controlled studies have been performed to ascertain what humans percieve to be random. One especially interesting phenominon is the human tendency to do what is called "repetition avoidance" when generating random numbers. Essentially, people think that they should avoid repeating numbers (especially more than twice in a row) when generating a random number string. For a really easy to understand example of this that most (if not all) of us can understand, try to recall the last time you wrote a multiple choice exam. Remember having a bit of a worried feeling when you cirled "d" four or five times consequtively? I know I felt that way. This is because we tend to think of tests as being random - hard to guess.

What I find even more interesting is that different people show differing degrees of repetition avoidance. As it turns out, people who believe in ESP and other paranormal phenomina tend to exhibit repetition avoidance significantly more than non-believers. Essentially, this means there are people that are predisposed to misinterpreting coincidences as something more. In addition, I think that this goes beyond level of education and so on. You can think of this as a "gut reaction", before all of the skepticism we've been taught as scientists or philosophers kicks in. Such gut reactions can be very powerful... we have to be very careful not to be carried away by such feelings.

I'll post references to all of the above findings as soon as I can get the papers from my girlfriend (she's much more versed on the neurological and psychological correlates of ESP belief than I).

I need a new sig.

I think, therefore I am (the Universe) (4.16 / 6) (#60)
by Skwirl on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 01:26:13 AM EST

Suppose, however, that the Universe started out with a very simple pattern recognition system, aimed at extending itself by simulating complex situations. [...] Our own minds would all be a relatively small part of it. [...] We persist in finding patterns where elaborate mathematical analysis can prove there are none...
Suppose that one's self started out as a very simple pattern recognition system that extends itself by simulating complex situations. I am the walrus/goo goo g'joob.

--
"Nothing in the world is more distasteful to a man than to take the path that leads to himself." -- Herman Hesse
Not neccessarily true (4.63 / 11) (#61)
by carbon on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 01:46:28 AM EST

Although consistency may be assumed by many theories, that does not mean that such a thing is part of the scientific method. For the sake of discussion, here's a simple fictional theory:

Invisible Pink Unicorns can always be detected with a Magical Pink Unicorn Detecting Widget.

There's a somewhat blatant assumption of consistency here, but that's alright, it's just part of the theory, even if it's not explicit. If I go on and conduct a whole bunch of experiments and come under peer review and eventually get this theory accepted into the general scientific community as law, then I've advanced the state of science (yay for me). However, that doesn't mean I'm right, it just means that based on all the data we've got, it's a safe bet that I'm right.

In 200 years, we use starships powered by IPU drives to travel to Alpha Centauri. Unfortunately, all the IPUs of our first wave of colonists escape upon their arrival. Our intrepid voyagers immediatley pull out their MPUDWs, but are startled to discover that they are inoperative. This comes to the attention of the scientific community. After through experimentation, they discover that exactly half way between Sol and Alpha Centauri, it is no longer possible to detect IPUs with MPUDWs.

Thus, in true scientific fashion, my original theory is proved wrong based on new data, and after some more research, the theory is revised and accepted as such:

Invisible Pink Unicorns can always be detected with a Magical Pink Unicorn Detecting Widget as long as the Widget and the Unicorn are within (distance from Sol to Alpha Centauri)/2 of Sol.

This is a problem of exactly the nature you're talking about, in that a theory based on an assumption of something working everywhere turns out to be incorrect. However, this does not indicate a problem with the scientific method itself, since my new theory (complete with modifications to deal with the problem of a non-consistent universe in terms of Invisible Pink Unicorns) can be accepted just as readily as the original was, under the very same scientific method.


Wasn't Dr. Claus the bad guy on Inspector Gadget? - dirvish
The scientific method dose not assume.. (3.50 / 2) (#64)
by Weezul on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 02:30:36 AM EST

..logical consistancy.  I've always considered the scientific metyhod to be more a "value judgement."  Specifically, that reproducible effects are of more value then non-reproducible effects.  Our notions of logic are mearly biological and cultural reflections of millions of years of evolution developing towards this value system.  This means that philosophically or evolutionarily logic is as much or more a corollary of science, then science is of logic.. dispite the fact that logic is one of the central tools to our perticular practice of modern science.

This is comming from a mathematician who studdies mathematical logic, i.e. about the last person you would expect to come up with such an idea.  What can I say, we all push philosophy out of ou little neck of the woods and into the subjects we know very little about.  In my case, the more applied sciences.

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." - Benito Mussolini

Tarot probabilities (4.00 / 3) (#69)
by Torako on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 04:18:44 AM EST

From a deck of 78 cards, in a 10 card pattern, I got eight cards in the same position all four times. If I had been doing Tarot readings at the rate of one per second since the Big Bang, my chances of seeing that happen would be vanishingly small.

Just because I like statistics so much: X: Number of matching Tarot cards out of 10

P(X=8)=(10 over 8)(68 over 2) / (78 over 10) = 8.15 x 10^-8

The probability of that happening once is about 0,00000008 %. Take that number ^4 and you have your probability for getting the same 8 cards four times in a row.

Congratulations, I guess.

Comments (4.33 / 6) (#70)
by qpt on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 04:24:44 AM EST

An assumption which was considered radical and improbable as recently as 300 years ago ... that the Universe is consistent.
I would be interested to hear more about this. Off the top of my head, I cannot think of a school of thought that held that the universe was inconsistent.
The Universe, scientists assume, may be obscure; but it does not lie.

...

Suppose the Universe is lying to physicists? Would we be able to tell?

What does behaving inconsistently have to do with lying? If I understand one of your points, you claim that inference cannot inferentially justified, but no other possible way of justification is apparent. Since we do not have any reason to suppose that the universe is consistent, then we can hardly fault it if it is not. Perhaps you were merely making a rhetorical flourish, but I think it detracts from the piece.

Domine Deus, creator coeli et terrae respice humilitatem nostram.

I had a dream where I was doing science (3.00 / 4) (#71)
by StephenThompson on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 04:43:22 AM EST

I had an amazing dream once. First, I dreamt that I wasn't dreaming. This is important, because I normally can 'tell' when I'm dreaming, but in this particular dream, I dreamt that I asked myself if I was dreaming, and I dreamt that I decided that I wasn't. Next, I dreamt that I was an incredibly rational scientist who wanted to find out the truth from first principles. I became a famous scientist and discovered all sorts of great things. I was very confident in my scientific approach, because it was objective and based in experimental fact. Then I awoke. Perhaps you had to have the dream to get the profundity of it all, but boy it has shaken my world view since!

Lies et al (4.33 / 3) (#74)
by jurgisb on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 05:51:42 AM EST

Suppose that universe is, for the sake of this argument, simple and self-sufficient.

Also suppose that it is so simple and sufficient, that it is able to adapt itself to any observations.

Also, you may agree that any observation, no matter how simple, bears with itself vast context of subjectivity. That is, any information that is derived by one method or another, is "authentic" only in the context of other information, which is derived by exactly same means, ad infinitum.

Thus, we come to the starting point, for all evaluations of the box from inside the box are bound to be subjective.

By the way, I really recommend everyone to read "The Pod And The Barrier" by Theodore Sturgeon, for some very interesting observations on this very matter.



out of chaos, order (3.33 / 3) (#75)
by chale on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 05:53:06 AM EST

we understand so little of the universe that the portion that we can observe does show enough consistency for us to be able to perform repeatable experiments. however, the part we can not observe could be generating the order we see while concealing the chaos we can not.

the little quirks that give scientists fits may be the chaotic elements that we can't quite see, yet. at some point in the future, we may be able to observe effects that will cause significant revision of our theories.

clarence


Last week, I began a sentence by saying, "If Bush had any imagination..." and then I hit myself. Silly me. "Molly Ivins"

I gave you a +1 ESP :-) (4.50 / 8) (#83)
by doru on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 09:04:55 AM EST

However, I'm not very sure I get your point.

1. Repeatability Accepting your definition of consistency, let me point out that, for someone who's not familiar with Newton's theory of gravity, a free fall experiment performed on Earth and on the Moon shows that the Universe is inconsistent, because the same body does not fall the same distance in the same amount a time. The same experiment will also give different results in San Diego and Oslo, unless you allow for latitude corrections.

"An electron in the vicinity of Alpha Centauri will have the same properties as one in your little finger" almost by definition, otherwise we wouldn't call it an electron...

Let me just point out that this assumption seems to work pretty fine, i. e. the refining of physical theories is accompanied by more and more repeatable and very accurate experiments.

2. Occam's razor As you point out yourself, your position grossly violates this principle. If I understood it correctly, it is just a conspiracy theory, where the Universe pulls nasty quantum tricks on us when we observe it, but otherwise it is very simple and classical. So you take the entire modern physics, and add to it another layer, vaguely defined by a computer analogy. All this because you are not comfortable with quantum theory and because once you had an epiphany while reading Tarot cards (by the way, did you repeat the experiment ?).

Frankly, I don't see any interest to this point of view, unless either :

a) You can perform an experiment to substantiate your claims. If using a "sufficiently shuffled deck of cards" is enough, that should be fairly easy... Once doesn't count.

b) You explain how a classical system can produce (fake) quantum effects. If you do that, you'll probably earn a trip to Stockholm for you and your tuxedo...

Best of luck.
I see Rusty's creation of Scoop as being as world changing an event as the fall of the Berlin wall. - Alan Crowe

My gosh what a can of worms . . . (4.42 / 7) (#84)
by bukvich on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 09:29:45 AM EST

First of all your consistency example is refuted by Feynman in chapter 1 of his lectures on Physics. If your experiment in Oslo doesn't match your experiment in Rio there is no scientific quandry. The experiment just doesn't match (perhaps there is a subtle earth latitude dependency.) Scientific truth == experimental result, period, consistent or no.

Consistency is a human neurological prejudice engrained over millions of years of evolution. The prejudice works much more often than not, reproducing the prejudice. We are not evolved to do hard science, really. For example take the simplest logical statement: P implies Q. These immediately follow: Not Q implies Not P. Q does not necessarily imply anything. Humans behave as if Q sort of implies P, or as if Q makes P more likely, which isn't logical but somehow it seems to intuitively feel right. Doing hard science is hard. D'oh.

As for your tarot experiment. Very interesting. You might consider the possibility that your subconscious mind just did that without the assistance of any outside agency. The power of the subconscious is awesome.

Think placebo effect.

It is bad luck to mix science and spirituality, in my experience.

Thank you for writing this.

B.

Multiple models needed (2.50 / 2) (#86)
by quixotic on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 09:43:15 AM EST

Interpreting the universe requires different models for different circumstances, but that doesn't mean that the univers is inconsistent. You can do quite well producing functional but limited models.No surprise there. In fact logical systems are either incomplete or inconsistent, and no perfect map is possible, so we will always have to resort to multiple models. To claim that the universe is inconsistent is sort of uninteresting though. One judges philosophical ideas largely on their consequences, and this doesn't really have any. "It cheats, but not in a way we can prove" doesn't lead anywhere any more interesting than "Maybe I'm imagining all this." "It's incomprehensible so we'd better give up trying" leads to the dark ages. If you propose a particular limited model, I'll be interested in looking at it. If you think somebody else should propose such a model, don't blame them if you can't be bothered to do your own supporting work. If you're suggesting we reexamine models like magic, well we have, and guess what: Science works. Magic doesn't, except on the human mind.

Thoughts (4.76 / 13) (#88)
by TheophileEscargot on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 10:16:13 AM EST

I voted this up because I thought there were some good comments. I think there are two issues here.

First, the Tarot card observations. I think this is adequately explained by combinining ucblockhead's and martingale's observations in this thread. It's very difficult and time-consuming to shuffle even ordinary cards in a truly random manner. Furthermore, what's random enough for a decent poker game is still not sufficiently random for you never to get a weird result in years of Tarot-reading. Add that to the fact that there are loads of pattern that will look spooky, and I really don't think localroger's observations are worth discarding the laws of Physics for.

Secondly, the rest of the article seems to be pretty standard epistemology: interesting but not original. Science only deals with stuff that we observe: any amount of weird shit could happen when we're not looking. But since we don't see it, I don't really care ;-)

I was surprised to see no reference to Godel's Incompleteness Theorem. As I understand it, no formal system of logic can ever be proved to be consistent. This is rather irritating to logicians. But, massively oversimplifying the rather complex argument in Russell's Human Knowledge, that's not the end of the world: we just have to add an extra postulate that things are consistent. It's annoying, but not worth throwing science out of the window for... at least while science and technology keep on working for us...
----
Support the nascent Mad Open Science movement... when we talk about "hundreds of eyeballs," we really mean it. Lagged2Death

What??? This is totally stupid! (3.38 / 13) (#93)
by Spork on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 10:37:15 AM EST

I really don't think the author understands the words that he's using. Anything that exists is "consistent" for free. Whether the laws which govern the behavior of that thing are simple, constant, deterministic or graspable by humans has nothing to do with whether or not they are consistent. And please, don't pull that stupid "what if there are no laws that govern the universe" line. I've taken intro to Philosophy of Science and I know that's complete crap.

Consider the universe as a whole (including its past, present and future). Now make a catalogue of all the events in that universe--call that the world-book. The laws of the universe are (more or less) just whatever regularities flow out of the events in the universe. Hypothetical universes might not have any regularities at all. Still, there is nothing "inconsistent" about them. We know enough about our own universe to know that there are many regularities, at least local ones. If there weren't we wouldn't be able to predict anything. The way my CPU works would change with every cycle. Whether there are any universal regularities, or laws which apply for all time everywhere in space, is necessarily up in the air and in principle untestable. So whatever. By most lights, that means it can't even rise to the level of a scientific conjecture. But again, the issue of regularity has nothing at all to do with the issue of consistency.

"Consistency" in science is a mathematical concept that basically applies to systems free of contradictions. There is a colloquial sense, I suppose, where "consistent" means something like "smooth," as in "My peanut butter is consistent while yours has chunks"--though even that sounds awful.

It seems we have again modded up an article that is nothing more than K5 wanna-be-deep science babble. This one gives us an excellent example of how to mix together separate issues, misuse terms, drop names and embarass yourself while trying to sound educated. I suppose it makes a good cautionary tale, so beware: don't turn in anything like this when you get to college!

Science does not require the universe.. (4.00 / 5) (#95)
by mindstrm on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 10:42:29 AM EST

to be consistant. It only requires that we have a model that explains the inconsistencies.

I have to bring up a point about casinos though.
People know the odds. They know the odds are in favor of the house. They know and *believe* that.

Gambling addicts do not gamble because they want to win. They gamble because each roll of the dice, spin of the wheel, or flop of the cards gives them a moment of control, of decision, a moment of fate. They get a rush. Psychological studies show it to be very, very similar, if not identical, to the psychological effects of cocaine addiction.

They don't gamble to win.  Or to put it differently... a gambling addict... someone who has a real problem with gambling... if they suddenly won every single hand, day after day.. it wouldn't do the trick for them anymore. (Note I don't say they wouold stop, none of us would turn down free money.... but the kick they need would NOT be there, because it's no longer gambling.)

Humans look for patterns, yes. That is how we learn and understand the world around us.
Some humans are stupider than others about it.
Some will believe statistics blindly, with no understanding of what they mean. But then again, it's not first hand information either.

The funny thing about basically all the 'extraordinary'  things that happen, that you say can't be coincidence, or indicate some higher power, is that they don't.

If people are often discovering things that don't fit our picture of the universe... nobody is hearing about it. And nobody is really observing it.

The real question is ... (4.50 / 8) (#98)
by semantix on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 10:48:17 AM EST

The real question is how often is the Universe consistent? This whole debate reminds me of a simple philisophical question which asks the following question, "Can our senses be relied upon some of the time."

Now we all know that sometimes our senses cannot be relied upon.  An example of a situation where this might occur is when we are so tired we have begun to hallucinate.  Or perhaps we just looked at a bright light and we can't see for a little while.

This question also extends to questions of whether we can ever trust our memory.  

Basically the conclusion of this philisophical debate has always been, "Darn, you can't prove that your senses are ever accurate." That is, it is impossible to say whether they have been lying to you your entire life, and never once told you the truth (partial or complete) of what is going on around you.

We reach a similar conundrum with questions of whether the Universe is consistent.  This question simply cannot be answered from within the system.  So why do science at all? Now, that's a really tough question.  

The closest I can come to answering this question is that science has served us well so far, giving us much more control over our environment than we otherwise would have had.  It seems that our faith in science rests upon its laurels.  There is no reason to suspect that science will work tomorrow.  Although I'd like to place my faith in the fact that it will.

There is one more train of though I've had on this topic.  If the Universe is indeed inconsistent from time to time due to the intervention of an omnipotent being, then who or what is it that created that being? What laws does it follow? Is its mode of behaviour unpredictable? Can anything be truly unpredictable?  Is there an infinte cascade of such beings simulating each other.  Or is it simply a finite circular cascade of simulations?
Does it make sense for me to ask such questions?

Many of these questions that I am asking I am willing to bet can be proven to be fundamentally unknowable, in much the same way that the truth of certain statements in mathematics is fundamentally unknowable (see  Godel's Incompleteness theorem).

Perhaps one day we will have a clear idea of what is fundamentally knowable and what isn't.  But this begs the question, "Is this very fact unknowable?"

I making myself dizzy. I think I'll go to bed now.

Semantix

Consistent = Known (3.00 / 2) (#100)
by SPasmofiT on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 11:03:50 AM EST

Inconsistency is the lack of consistency, in the sense that we lack a good enought aproximation for creating an ideal model.
All things were once inconsistente, but after some exploring, they feel logical... it's a matter of knowledge.

We have to reason to doubt that EVERYTHING is logical and consistent... all we need to do is explore and analyse it.

Various related tidbits (4.33 / 6) (#105)
by dennis on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 11:22:39 AM EST

1) I read an article a while back about a mathematician (I'll try to dig up the reference) who recently, after about 20 years of work, figured out some nasty implications of Godel's Theorem. Basically, he proved that Godel's incompleteness is pervasive - the "universe" of math is broken into lots of disconnected regions, without any logical connection between them. True but unprovable theorems abound.

Since physics is so closely related to math, maybe the universe isn't as tidy as we think. Maybe there are phenomena that are real, but governed by an unrelated region of mathematics, and hence outside the physics we know. Maybe, by the nature of mathematics, this will always be the case, there will never be a theory of everything, and the best we can do is keep learning more.

2) 4/27/02 New Scientist said some physicists are working on treating the three dimensions of space as a projection from a two-dimensional hologram, vastly reducing the amount of information in the universe. It makes the math work out nicely, somehow.

3) Here's a freaky article from Wired...a guy named Dick Bierman is claiming that when you show someone who's hooked up to an MRI a series of images, with some disturbing images randomly mixed in, you can detect an unconscious emotional response a couple seconds before each disturbing image.

Science, Consistency and Lies (3.33 / 3) (#116)
by Simon Kinahan on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 12:02:24 PM EST

It is not really clear to me what you mean by "consistency". Scientific method does not particularly depend on the universe being consistent: we've yet to resolve the consistency of out two major physical theories, let alone made them completely consistent with what we understand of botany, or psychology. The scientific enterprise continues in spite of these problems. It may well be impossible to develop a single perfectly consistent theory to describe every aspect of the universe: it may just be beyond our intellectual powers, the universe may not contain enough bits to express such a theory, there might be effects that make it impossible to make the necessary measurements, and so on. Science can continue regardless. It will just need to continue in several different compartments. This is pretty much what happens anyway.

What science does depend on, and what I think you probably meant, is predictability. For empirical investigation to work, we need to know that if we precisely replicate the relevant circumstances, then we'll get the same results. We have pretty good evidence, I think, that the universe is at least mostly predictable between microscopic and human scales, because if it were not, the biochemistry on which are bodies are based would not work reliably. Additionally, our minds are pretty clearly set up to look for patterns and rules. Since we are part of the universe, why would we be built to live that way if it didn't work ?

I do not think it makes much sense to talk about the universe lieing. Science does not make any claims to know how the universe "really" works. Some scientists might believe it describes the real functioning of the world, but you don't have to believe that to do, or understand, science. We set up experiments, collect results, and try to come up with descriptions that will correctly predict future results. Those descriptions are just descriptions, and what matters is whether they work, not how the universe "really" works. If the universe cheats and doesn't compute the state of bits of the world we can't observe, how would we even know ?

Your example about Tarot suggests you think the mind has some intimate connection with reality. It is quite possible, I think, that conscious minds have some role in the universe we don't yet understand. Scientists tend to resist the idea, because the scientific method is all about trying to rule phenomena that are only available to one mind out of consideration, but there's no particular reason why the universe should have been constructed for the convenience of scientists. Just what consciousness is, is pretty much the only really interesting question that is not yet in the domain of science, and it may be that we need some different methodology, before we can figure it out.

However, you seem to suggest that we can't ever integrate the relationship between consciousness and the universe into our predictive models. I don't see any reason to suppose that should be the case.

Simon

If you disagree, post, don't moderate

Randomness == Noise (3.25 / 4) (#121)
by mathematician on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 12:17:07 PM EST

Another possibility, which is very plausible to me after my later gambling adventures, is that there is a universal human inability to perceive randomness for what it is.
Humans do detect randomness. The lack of a pattern is a pattern in itself. An easier explanation is that humans are illogical creatures that are influenced by logic and they'll believe whatever suits their particular situation at any one time (like the belief they can beat the house in a casino).

Consistency and explanatory power (3.00 / 3) (#122)
by Scrymarch on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 12:17:48 PM EST

Consistency could mean any number of things, and this essay exploits its definitional vagueness while attempting to describe a better term.

Going to that lowest common denominator of modern English, dictionary.com:

con·sis·ten·cy   Pronunciation Key  (kn-sstn-s)
n. pl. con·sis·ten·cies

I think it's fair to claim all definitions point to the same base concept.  I've rearranged them for convenience.

Degree of density, firmness, or viscosity: beat the mixture to the consistency of soft butter.

In this sense, the Universe is not consistent, as it is not homogenous.  Taking temperatures in Berlin does not yield the same result as taking them in Sao Paulo.  For that matter, temperature changes during a day, or on moving from the garden to the lounge room.  That's ok, and not a result of our thermometers lying to us.

Agreement or logical coherence among things or parts: a rambling argument that lacked any consistency.

Let's extend this version further to posit that the universe is inherently inexplicable; ie, there is no Theory Of Everything.  Certain patterns are present, but beyond a certain point of explanation all is bedlam, and not quantifiable except by a description in 1:1 scale.

I thought this was where you were going at one point, and it might be a corollary of your suggestions.  Your tarot card example points a different way though, towards a structured intervention by things acting like intelligent agents.

Reliability or uniformity of successive results or events: pitched with remarkable consistency throughout the season.

So you suggest that repeatable experiments become much harder to setup in a universe with intelligent agents.  This could be because of interventions or because the theory needs the explanatory power to describe these agents.  But any Theory of Everything has already set itself that problem - explaining human beings.

Correspondence among related aspects; compatibility: questioned the consistency of the administration's actions with its stated policy.

There is a philosophical pamphlet I haven't read that I believe is called On The Consequences Of An Omnipotent God, which defends the literal truth of scripture, even where it's inconsistent, roughly on the grounds that "duh, he's, like, God, he can do anything."

It's very easy to use this explanation once you have it; it dispels the slightest inconsistency in a world view.  "I'm sure I remembered to hang the washing out. God must have replaced it wet in the machine."  If this is the way Our Lord and Father interacts with the world so be it, but He has a tendency to leave our minds consistent with events after doing so, so there's little point worrying about it; it's a solipsism variant.

So we're left with structured interventions by intelligent agents, that can alter the rules of the universe itself.  I don't see this as a problem, or rather I see it as an excrutiatingly difficult but soluble problem.  

In the DOOM scenario, surely the improvements made to the DOOMiverse are backward compatible.  If they are then the version change needs to be incorporated into our theory, much the way physicists speculate about changes in the values of fundamental constants over time.  If they aren't then we, the flesh-eating zombies, have been upgraded to the latest version, and there isn't an issue.  The programmer analogy is a little weak anyway, because their interventions in the DOOMiverse imply the existence of a larger world outside shotguns and "raeearrgh" noises.  Your description, as I understand it, has an ethereal group of hacker-zombies living in the DOOMiverse and occassionally adding extra items and moving walls.

Personally I think it unlikely we are living in a computer simulation; the Universe crashes too infrequently.

I wildly speculate that the interactions between us, the Universe and any other ghosts in the machine form a language-game, the meaning of which arises from playing and is not necessarily useful outside the game.  Unifying that with Physics would make the wrinkles in superstring theory look like 2nd grade arithmetic.

(Everything I Know About Subjective Cosmology I Learnt From Greg Egan Stories.)

To conclude with a wonderful sentence,

The idea is, of course, totally insane, except for the fact that the vast majority of humans believe something similar is going on all the time.


Consistentcy isn't a function of the universe... (4.50 / 4) (#129)
by SIGFPE on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 01:07:32 PM EST

...but a function of our descriptions of it. As things currently stand our different descriptions are not consistent with each other. We can ask "will we one day have a future consistent description that is also consistent with what we observe?". But that's speculation about future human behaviour among other things.
SIGFPE
Structure conflict (4.72 / 11) (#131)
by awgsilyari on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 01:21:44 PM EST

I think you're definitely on the right track with this. I'd just like to add my thoughts.

All scientific experiments are designed by humans, conducted by humans with human-designed equipment, and interpreted by humans. Our understanding of the results of experiments is a mental phenomenon. The "truth" of an experiment does not exist out there, in some physical, touchable form. Truth is really something within the human mind.

Humans can agree on what an experiment means because we all share the same kind of mind. To a limit, our brains are all identical in how they process information and make inferences.

The brain is a classification device. Everything we do with our minds ultimately boils down to classifying events and objects into different groups. I believe that ALL thought and perception is simply the act of classification. What many people forget is that this classification is something that WE do, and does not necessarily represent anything "true" about the universe. In this light, the fact that observers have deep effects on what they observe is not completely strange.

We observe consistency in the universe, I believe, because our mental classifiers are designed to do so. We easily see patterns and consistencies, but it isn't so easy to understand (or even PERCEIVE) the things that cannot be classified. Our perception of the universe is skewed toward the things that "mesh" with our mentality. When we observe inconsistencies, we fight against them and try to find a way to make things consistent. But there is no real reason why the universe SHOULD be consistent -- we just WISH it were.

The strangeness in science (particularly in physics) of the last 100-150 years is due, I think, to a clash between the actual "nature" of the world (if such a thing exists) and the nature of our minds. The current situation is insoluble. We are trying to understand things that the very STRUCTURE of our brains is fighting against. In order to really understand what's ACTUALLY going on (is there anything ACTUALLY going on?) we're going to have to change the way we think. And that might not be possible with our current brains.

Have we hit a limit of understanding? I don't think so -- there will always be more that can be understood and explained. But I believe there are an infinite number of things that we will never understand, or even notice, about the world. And this is due to the structure of our minds.

--------
Please direct SPAM to john@neuralnw.com

wow the odds' of that on the cards is small! (2.85 / 7) (#132)
by nodsmasher on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 01:24:49 PM EST

somthing similer hapended to me, i picked a card out of a deck 10 times, i got
the 2 of clubs
the 4 of hearts
the king of dimonds
the ace of spades
the 7 of spades
the 9 of clubs
the jack of clubs
the ace of dimonds
the 7 of clubs
and teh 8 of spades
i mean omg the chanes of that hapening are 52^10, there must be somthing fishy in the universe
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Most people don't realise just how funny cannibalism can actually be.
-Tatarigami
Why the "impossibly" unlikely is bound t (4.60 / 10) (#134)
by tmoertel on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 01:41:32 PM EST

In the story the author shares a hair-raising experience in which an extremely unlikely Tarot-reading event occurs. The probability of the event, by the author's calculations, is vanishingly small, and the underlying conclusion is that the event should not have occurred. That the event did occur suggests to the author that perhaps the reading wasn't random but rather arranged by a behind-the-scenes entity for the benefit of the author's observation.

We need not look so far for an explanation. Even if I assume that the probability of the Tarot event was vanishingly small, I am not surprised that it happened. Why? Because at any point in time we are each participating in a vast number of simultaneous experiments, any one of which may have any number of highly improbable (yet still possible) outcomes that we are apt to consider freakishly unlikely. And while it may indeed be freakishly unlikely that any one in particular of these outcomes will occur, it is not unlikely that we will experience several such outcomes over the course of our lives.

Over the course of a single day, how many thousands, millions, or even more of these commonplace experiments to we participate in? We drop change from our pockets, receive letters in the mail, bump into friends at the mall. When none of the coins stand on edge, or when we don't receive letters from five of our old college mates at the same time, or when we're at the mall and don't run into the long lost friend who moved away nine years ago and we were just now talking about but haven't thought of since, we don't recognize that we have just participated in experiments that could each have had freakishly unlikely outcomes.

But we have. And over time, as the everyday experiments accumulate into vast seas of billions, odds are that we will experience something that is so seemingly unlikely that it will blow our minds and bring goosebumps to our arms. But if we step back and consider more than the immediate here and now, we will see that such an event was bound to happen.

It was only a matter of time.

--
My blog | LectroTest

[ Disagree? Reply. ]


Good article (4.00 / 5) (#137)
by Anonymous 242 on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 02:17:01 PM EST

I wish you would have brought up Hume's posing of why we presume the principle of universal conformity. Certainly the universe seems consistant a good deal of the time. But how can we rationally justify the principle of universal conformity?

Second, it seems to me that your essay is really more about perceiving consistency than whether or not the universe is consistent. Take your DOOMiverse thought experiment. For the purpose of the experiment it doesn't matter whether or not the universe is consistent. The only thing that matters is whether the perceptable universe (the DOOMiverse) is consistent. Hence we can draw the rather unenlightening conclusion that those who perceive consistency in the universe hold the universe to be consistent.

Another way of rephrasing the same question above is how does one know that the Tarot cards do not follow a consistent set of imperceptable rules? We don't. We can't. Hence, we cannot reasonably conclude whether or not your highly improbably series of dealt hands are consistent with the universe or not. All we can judge is that such a series is highly improbable (and some would also point out that there are quite a few perceptable reasons as to why such a series of hands might be dealt that are entirely perceptable in a properly controlled setting.)

Again, I greatly enjoyed your article. I encourage you write a follow up in a few weeks or months that expand your ideas. I find them fascinating.

-l

Neo said it better... (3.60 / 5) (#144)
by Skywise on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 02:46:54 PM EST

"There is no spoon..."

You've got a great post, but the Tarot argument is flawed.  For instance, take a typical deck of cards and arrange the deck in alternating color order (red, black, red, black).  Shuffle the deck once.  Now pick off pairs.  Each pair you pick off will be of the same color, all through the deck.

But that's a trick!  Well yeah, but that's your point.  You're observing a "hack" in the universe which also demonstrates the flaws in your argument.  Science requries a consistent universe to verify its experimental results.  But the laws we write from these results are approximations of the observations.  What you're seeing is a conflict in the laws of randomness and the laws of  mathematics.  But it's not because you've bent the cards to your will. (Or maybe you have in a sense, but that's another argument...)  But because in this case one law takes precedence over another.

However, nothing you can do (so far as we know) will change the deck of cards into a bunny rabbit.  And here's where the question shifts from science to the philosophical.  What if we discover one day that if we say a particular word, the deck of cards turns into a bunny rabbit.  Does that make the universe inconsistent?  No.  So long as you can do it repeatedly, that means we've got a bad observation somewhere and man will have to rewrite his laws.  That holds true so long as there's one consistent part of that action (the word, you, the bunny rabbit, the cards).  Even if you randomly change out 3 of the four, you'll still have a consistency to base the universe on.

The logic of your article occurs at the two extremes of that problem.  If the action is not repeatable (a miracle) the universe is not consistent.  But that has such a limited impact on man's life, it will be easily waived away. (The universe is still mostly consistent).  The other extreme is when the universe begins behaving irrationally.  Man cannot survive in this universe (most actions have random outcomes) and so it's delegated a non-issue.

But here's the kicker... We can and do bend the universe to our will.  Maybe not so much in the metaphysical context.  But we can fly, we can go to the moon, we can cheat death... and on a social level, we have complete and total control over our daily lives... peace, war, money, love and relationships... Which is far more important to most men anyway than the number of angels on a pinhead...

Ask a stupid qustion.... (2.00 / 2) (#155)
by bjlhct on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 03:35:38 PM EST

Of course the universe is consistent. For a certain value of consistent.

However, since it is reality, it has to define reality, so it ISD what's consistent. We can't say that the Universe has a problem when it doesn't conform to the models we built off it.

*
[kur0(or)5hin http://www.kuro5hin.org/intelligence] - drowning your sorrows in intellectualism

consistency is observable (4.50 / 2) (#158)
by khallow on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 03:48:49 PM EST

The ultimate question to be answered is whether the universe appears to be consistent or not. And the answer is that up to current observations, the universe is astoundingly consistent. We can observe it in a vast number of ways and none have revealed any real consistency issues. When something inconsistent with theory turns up, it's because our understanding of the universe turns out to be incorrect, not because the universe changed its rules on us.

Even your tarot card reading indicates no consistency problems - it might just mean that your mind has evolved (in a manner consistent with the universe as we know it) over billions of years so that now it would only exist in states where those tarot cards addressed your problem.

My point is that consistency is something we can observe. The universe is observed to be consistent both near and far. Hence, the dogma of unversal consistency has become part of science. One can question whether the scientific "method", etc are really valid. However, whatever science is doing, it does generate statements about the universe (and us) that are extremely hard to refute by observation. Ultimately, that is the issue. If something is never observed (and can never be observed) does that thing exist? The dogmatic answer ultimately is "no." No other answer is consistent.

Stating the obvious since 1969.

Suggested Reading... (4.50 / 4) (#164)
by joeyo on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 04:39:28 PM EST

But there are problems. The simple rules which describe the motion of astronomical bodies are not consistent with the simple rules that describe the behavior of subatomic particles, and attempts to merge the two simple systems are not so simple.

This is indeed an interesting phenomenon, and one which seems to repeat itself throughout both physics and mathematics.  For a good general introduction, I'd suggest Michael Berry's recent article in Physics Today, Singular Limits (PDF File.)

-- I'm down with the sodomites. They have all the fun. --Rusty

Does it matter ? (3.66 / 3) (#171)
by bugmaster on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 05:38:47 PM EST

Does it matter if the Universe is "consistent" all the time, or only when we're looking ? For example, let's pretend that if a tree falls in the forest, and there's no one there to hear it, then it makes no sound. Or maybe, sometimes it plays an N'Sync song, insetad of that "crash" sound. Or maybe it says "auch". Or all of the above. However, when there is someone in the forest to hear the tree, it makes that "crash" sound each time.

Well, by definition, we will never be able to test this claim. We will never be to test what happens to the tree when when we are not there to hear it fall, since we'd have to be there to begin with. In this case, why should we care ? For all intents and purposes, the tree might as well always make that "crash" sound, since no one will ever be able to experience anything to the contrary.
>|<*:=

madness, pure madness. (4.33 / 9) (#181)
by parasite on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 06:53:55 PM EST

You lost your militant atheism over a deck of cards ? DUDE!! Argh!!! That is madness, pure madness.

I won't mention the odds, because there are two more important points people often over look:

1. If seemingly peculiar things DIDN'T happen AT ALL, then THEN you would have reason to question what is going on here. So many times people forget that 99% of their lives there is nothing happening -- right in front of their face -- that has very low odds of happening. Think of all the other possibilities that DIDN'T HAPPEN -- there are BILLIONS of possibilities that never came true. For example: did 8 consecutive cars pass you -- and all had the same first 3 digits ANZ on their license plate ?? Nope. If you'll just day dream for a minute, I'm sure you can come up with 1000's of similar possibilties that would have drawn your attention HAD they come true, but drew no attention because they did not.

Now when you take into consideration the billions of other things that COULD have happened and didn't, it would only be strange if one of them DIDN'T happen.

2. In that deck of cards alone -- think of all the OTHER possible "patterns" that would have been of low odds to occur, but yet would have set off your "this is WEIRD" detector. There are so many combinations that seem WEIRD, it would almost guarantee one of those possibilities eventually happen to you.

Math proves this (2.66 / 6) (#186)
by freddie on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 08:11:02 PM EST

Goedel's imcompleteness theorem, which states that no logical system with a finite set of axioms can:
  1. be proven to be consistent
  2. be complete
among other things.

This crushed the hopes of mathematicians of ever finding a complete of set of axioms from which all theorems could be calculated.

Goedel's incompleteness theory applies to everything from science to law, and anywhere else were logic is applied.

Science cannot, and will not ever be able to serve as an explantion for all phenomena. Geeks ought to know this!


Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
Coincidences happen (4.33 / 6) (#187)
by dipierro on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 08:34:52 PM EST

Last Thursday I went to court to fight a traffic ticket.  The judge informed me that I was facing 10-30 days in jail, even though the ticket I was fighting was a minor traffic offense with no jail time.  To make a long story short, it turns out someone else with the exact same name as me had a court appearance in the same courtroom on the same day at the same time.  Now *that* is a pretty strange coincidence.

Based on the conclusions you made from the Tarot card incident, I thank "God" that you weren't the judge.

In capitalism, man exploits man. In socialism, it's the other way around.

What is the philosophic equivelant of pedantic? (2.00 / 2) (#188)
by Sesquipundalian on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 08:50:06 PM EST

You seem to be dancing around something like the following;

1. The information storage/processing requirements needed to account for all the stuff that happens in the universe is way huge.

2. Invoking Occams razor actually gives us a good argument for supposing that less actually happens than is implied by a so called 'straight game' universe where what you see at one point is repeated consistently throught the whole structure. After all, something like an omnipresent consciousness is actually far less of a gratuitous entity (actually by a few dozen orders of magnitude) that all of that dumb information processing that is otherwise implied.

3. Some real experiments that we can actually do seem to point to phenomena that look suspiciously like a lapse of attention on the part of <God?/Omni-whatever?>

So how about it?

Can we constrain the behavior of an omnipresent consciousness based upon what we know? Does it have to be conscious? What attributes could it have? I mean when you think about it, he's right. All of that information processing going on in the background, unobserved, is a HUGE gratuitous entity. It does seem rather unjustified in light of what we know about the universe (things like all of those conservation laws, and the fact that the universe seems to be such an economical place). The processing requirements for a conscious entity that looked after just the emergent sentient entities pale in comparison and are by far the less gratuitous entity.

We might start by itemizing attributes of conscious behavior and then pairing down the list by comparing the resulting predictions with observations that we have actually made. I suspect that a serious effort would arrive at a set of attributes that included only some of the behavior that we normally ascribe to conscious entities (whith the possible addition of some that we don't). It's a bit of a moon shot, but if we could slip a few more wedges into the cracks in our reality (tunnel diodes anyone?), think of the technology we could make,

<troll>Just think of all the cool weapons we could make!</troll>.

I'm almost afraid to hit POST, what if this section of the galaxy BSOD's when I do... Oh well, here goes...
Did you know that gullible is not actually an english word?
Maybe I'm missing something... (4.25 / 4) (#214)
by Bnonn on Sun Jun 09, 2002 at 11:44:03 PM EST

...but I just don't understand this "subatomic particles that are hardly ever seen would mean too much gratuitous processing power" argument. It seems to imply that the author (and everyone who is validating this argument by discussing it) believes the universe exists inside a computer, or otherwise is a computer. I don't see any other way it can make sense.

I'm possibly just missing something obvious, but why is the universe being related to a computer? It's not digital; it's analogue. Particle interactions don't need to be processed to occur, except in the most rudimentary form of the word where "processed" means "allowed the necessary time, space and energy"--of which there is evidently precisely the right amount.

It's not even an immensely complex system. There are only a few fundamental particles, and the way they relate to each other is quite defined and constrained. Who cares how many bits it would take to fully define an atom? The atom doesn't. It simply exists, and that's all. Each particle, quanta etc is an invididual component of the universe.

To reiterate. I don't get it.

Ouija Board Effect (2.50 / 2) (#219)
by maveness on Mon Jun 10, 2002 at 12:43:47 AM EST

It seems to me that the simplest possible explanation for the Tarot card phenomenon is that your "randomization" in shuffling was governed by subconscious processes. You dealt yourself the same cards because you were trying to tell yourself something. No need to multiply entities unnecessarily. By the way, I don't think that makes Tarot readings any less potentially interesting or valuable.

*********
Latest fortune cookie: "The current year will bring you much happiness." As if.

Don't worry about it, cause... (3.00 / 5) (#241)
by Klondike on Mon Jun 10, 2002 at 06:06:01 AM EST

...I don't think you're a kook. I see things jumping from behind the wall of reality at me all the time. Little things that just seem to happen that never happen except when they're needed. A random creaking noise when I *had* to be up for a test or work and I had fallen back asleep, a noise I'll never ever hear again in my life until I fall asleep before another test... Files unrenaming themselves on my computer...I don't think you're a kook at all. I'm not an atheist, and I'm not a theist, but I think there's something, because something's happening. I identify with your article completely, I don't think you're wrong at all. 'Bout time someone backed up my intuition with some actual facts, too. :)

What is the human mind? (4.55 / 9) (#245)
by Alhazred on Mon Jun 10, 2002 at 08:43:59 AM EST

Ask yourself this question, think deeply about it.

Consider the environment that the mind and its physical implementation, the brain, exist within. Each and every second Terabytes of data flow in from the body's sensory systems. The brain sorts and codes these incoming signals, applies extremely sophisticated pattern matching and signal processing algorithms to them, compares them to billions, perhaps trillions, of stored examples of sensory impressions, integrates them with higher-order reasoning and planning faculties, creates plans of action based on the results of these processing steps, subjects those plans to prioritization and further sub-planning steps, and then issues commands  to lower level processing subsystems which translate them into motor activity programs etc.

First of all, all sorts of "processing artifacts" can arise in such a complex system. No doubt out brains have evolved to deal with and compensate for the worst of these (for instance our mental processes are subject to constant consistency checks, just imagine your reaction to a pig with wings and you can understand that).

HOWEVER, the bottom line is that we are essentially extremely powerful pattern recognition systems! Your brain contains at least 10 billion neurons, and perhaps as many as 10 trillion interconnections. All performing massively parallel processing. You are DESIGNED to find patterns in things. Thus when your mind is confronted with essentially random, uncorrelated inputs, like the relation between the tarot cards and reality, what does it do? Why it extracts a pattern from that!!! No matter that there IS no pattern. You have roughly 1000 trillion basic cognitive operations per second going on in your head dedicated to finding SOMETHING there. You WILL see patterns. Its a testament to the power of natural selection that you see as few false patterns as you do.

In general I think the speculations you're making are fun, but from a logical positivist point of view (which forms the basis of the epistemology of science in general) its MEANINGLESS to ask "what is really there". All we can ask is "how can we model what we see?" In other words electrons, protons, etc embedded in a 4 (or 11 if you will) dimensional planck-scale quantized space-time continuum is a good model for physical reality, thats all. People try to read WAY too much into science.
That is not dead which may eternal lie And with strange aeons death itself may die.

This is false (4.25 / 4) (#253)
by epepke on Mon Jun 10, 2002 at 10:20:56 AM EST

The Universe, scientists assume, may be obscure; but it does not lie. An experiment which works in San Diego will, if it reveals Truth, also work in Oslo.

As Richard Feynman (often called, with justification, the best mind since Einstein) pointed out nearly four decades ago, this is false (although he used Quito instead of San Diego in his example). If the experiment is, for example, to go outside and look at the northern lights, you will see them in Oslo but not in most places. If the experiment is Foucalt's Pendulum, that's going to give a different result, too.

What people look for in science are patterns. If we find them, great. If we don't, great, too. At least we know something more than we did before we looked.


The truth may be out there, but lies are inside your head.--Terry Pratchett


I'm amazed this got voted up (4.33 / 3) (#264)
by Ken Arromdee on Mon Jun 10, 2002 at 03:00:52 PM EST

By this reasoning, it would be impossible for someone to ever decide that something in science is the result of error. Unless you have a scientist's log book showing where he spilled coffee on a zero and turned it into an eight, you're not going to find any more evidence for human error than you are for universe inconsistency.

Yet scientists decide that things are caused by errors all the time.

Besides, just look at quantum mechanics. That's really a case where the scientists decided that it's a universe inconsistency, they just didn't call it that. Sure, there are quantum mechanics rules, but the rules are only staitstical and don't predict what happens in each individual case. It's no different from the DOOM AI deciding that certain textures are randomly generated.

Ugh (4.60 / 5) (#267)
by Fon2d2 on Mon Jun 10, 2002 at 03:45:03 PM EST

That's how I feel after reading this... Ugh. I'm not even sure where you're trying to go with this. Are you trying to show the Universe is consistent, is not consistent? Are you just trying to pose the question? Are you trying to argue the existence of God? The paranormal? This thing goes all over the place and keeps pulling unfamiliar references to things that aren't explained:

  • However, it is a simple matter to divide the Hubble limit by the Planck constant and show that the Universe is finite
  • The problem is that in some very repeatable experiments testing the properties of small particles, it appears very much that the Universe is looking over our shoulder and arranging the results to suit.
  • It's tempting to draw parallels with the collapse of the state vector in quantum mechanics, and many magic-practicing people do exactly that;
Hubble Limit? Collapse of the state vector? Universe arranging results? I mean can you elaborate on these things? Or perhaps remove some of them and just get to the point? Here, let me know if this sentence sums it up: Although the theory of a consistent Universe is impossible to prove, all scientific tests and experiments to date verify this theory. Does that do it? Is that the jist of your article? Please tell me there's more.

Psychologicaly speaking (4.00 / 1) (#268)
by jnemo131 on Mon Jun 10, 2002 at 03:46:46 PM EST

Regarding how humans have a blindspot for randomness, I think this could be tied into the psychological idea that we block out what we don't want to see. Humans want to believe that anything exists for a purpose. Even if we say that there is no God to ourselves, deep down we want to believe that there is some sort of justification of the actions that we witness everyday. So, we tell ourselves that this is a pattern, that its a pattern because it was meant to be a pattern, that its that way for a reason. This ties in with a belief in God (I realize this contradicts the rest of the paper), we manufacture a God because we want to believe that He decided certain outcomes, certain patterns, because it isn't feasible to us that these patterns could just exist. We need to tell ourselves that God exists, just like we need to believe that randomness does not. It makes us feel warm and fuzzy and prevents the mental breakdowns that usually result from a feeling of uselessness in the world's scheme.

"I heard the droning in the shrine of the sea-monkey"
-The Pixies
Impress us (5.00 / 4) (#269)
by Sacrifice on Mon Jun 10, 2002 at 03:54:37 PM EST

Clearly, something unlikely has happened to you.  

Of course, you are not lying.  You are merely trying to persuade us that your interpretations of some events that happened to you are valid.

Now, what does it mean to us?  

What would it mean to me, a purportedly intelligent, pragmatic individual, were I in your place?

Others have made some of these (excellent) points:

  1. Any particular sequence of random events is equally unlikely; humans just find patterns in them (perhaps formally, when the minimum description length for a large, compound event is significantly lower than average)
  2. We experience many events, but fixate on those that jump out at us as coincidences.
  3. To impress intelligent people, it is important to specify "amazing-event" in a blind fashion, before any knowledge of its occurrence.  This means collecting data without a predefined experiment (for example, some numbers related to religious texts) and then searching for undefined patterns and proclaiming the unlikeliness of your best find is right out.
  4. for any predefined unlikely-event, expect it to happen to somebody about a billion times more often than it would happen to you.  Expect to hear about the really low-probability events.  Be surprised when one happens to you, but not when one happens to someone else.
  5. to calculate a rational measure of astonishment at coincidences, it is not enough to, after you see a pattern Pat_17834982, to calculate the probability very_small_number that for any trial, Pat_17834982 would occur, then multiply that by the number of such trials you typically encounter per lifetime, and then report that product Wow_factor_17834982 as "what are the odds of something that amazing happening?".  You must be able to properly count all the similarly-"amazing" patterns Pat_n, and report the sum over all Wow_factor_n as the expected number of such similarly amazing events happening to you.  My suspicion is that, for individuals with a strong memory, sharp eye, and a creative mind, Sum(over all n) Wow_factor_n is probably much greater than 1.
  6. If your results aren't repeatable, they are meaningless to us (and from the sound of your comments, you do not dare tempt the Gods by inviting Randi over to observe them).  A similar pattern exists for all sorts of mysticism.  If "Lord, show me a sign" gets you killed, I shudder to think what "make the next 20 rolls of this 20-sided die come up 1,3,4, ..." gets you.  This reminds me of an often amusing joke (although many people have said it and meant it) where the comic publicly addresses God and asks to be struck dead by lightning on the spot if XYZ isn't true (this is most amusing when XYZ is something derogatory about God).
So, I am confident that somewhere above is an explanation that can allow me to believe in the validity of my own (pretty damn useful and satisfying) worldview without having to write you off as a kook or a liar.  I'd say that's worth something!  

My appraisal is that, all things considered, the collection of astonishing events you report is somewhat larger than any given individual with your mental proclivities would expect to find.  However, it is not surprising that out of billions of people, many of them have such an experience and tell us about it.  

However, I'm always open to the possibility that there's something "there" behind one of the many mystical worldviews (certainly, on average, they are complete trash, and I would not expect many of them to have any explanation except the frailty of human intellect).  So, here's what you can do: define a heretofore unseen unlikely event that you can compute the expected occurrence of (please be honest here).  If you get a strong result, repeat the experiment as many times as possible, without fear of disproving your hypothesis.

When you are done, report back to us with your results.

Unfortunately, it sounds like you have a "respect" for these mystical forces and do not want to repeat such an experiment, because you will "piss them off".  It seems to me that you fear that in the long run, you will get chance results, because your mystical worldview, while entertaining, is not correct.  That is always the conclusion I draw when someone explains that only a true believer can see the effects of the mystical forces, or that magic is real, but the presence of skeptics interferes with it.


My two cents (2.00 / 1) (#274)
by tranx on Mon Jun 10, 2002 at 06:43:32 PM EST

I think this very question was already answered in Jacques Monod's Le hasard et la nécessité : essai sur la philosophie naturelle de la biologie moderne I'm sure you can get an English version, my copy says it was translated in 15 languages. Monod got a Nobel prize in 1965 so I guess he's more authoritative than me at this kind of discussions...

"World War III is a guerrilla information war, with no division between military and civilian participation." -- Marshall McLuhan

Universe as simulation (4.50 / 2) (#276)
by tgibbs on Mon Jun 10, 2002 at 07:26:02 PM EST

One of my favorite idle speculations is that our universe is intended as a simulation of a continuous universe. Since the designers didn't have infinite storage available, they made do with a quantal approximation, making the quanta so small that they were sure that it would make no difference.

The unfortunate corrolary of this hypothesis is that  once the designers notice that we are mucking around with quantum this and quantum that, they'll likely shut us all down and start over with a smaller value of Planck's constant!

flaws with this argument (5.00 / 3) (#306)
by kubalaa on Tue Jun 11, 2002 at 07:57:51 AM EST

Localroger, you've been watching The Matrix one too many times.

The thing you neglected to point out is that even the DOOMiverse has rules --
it's described by a computer program, how much more rule-bound can you get? And
enough scientific experiments are bound to reveal these rules.

The second question, "is the universe consistent", is really a non-issue.
Consistency is defined in terms of the universe. Things are only inconsistent
with respect to the universe -- and a universe cannot be inconsistent with
respect to itself. I'll be happy to elaborate for
anyone who doesn't see why this is so.

If you believe that science is wrong, there are two ideas you have to attack:

  1. if something happens which makes no difference, it makes no difference (Occam's Razor)
  2. if something happens which makes a difference, the difference it makes can be described
Countering the first gets nonsense ("If something happens which makes no
difference, it makes a difference"), though it's surprising how many people try
and question Occam's Razor. Countering the second is more believable, though
still silly. If you can't describe the difference, in what meaningful sense
does the difference exist?

The philosophical basis of science:
1. If something exists, it can be described.


God is not in our RELIABLE universe (none / 0) (#323)
by xriso on Wed Jun 12, 2002 at 12:09:08 AM EST

Why do these rules of information conservation matter? I mean, he worked with the laws of physics for 14 billion years (our time) to construct a wonderfully fine-tuned place for humanity. I mean, sure he could be deceptive somehow (creating the universe last thursday or somesuch), but it is impractical to consider these untestable things.

I'll throw this to you though: God may be cutting corners when we're not looking, but Science tells us (by experimentation) that we can rely on the Universe to be consistent every time it actually matters. A reliable universe is enough for me.

By the way, would you say that other people only exist when you're communicating with them?
--
*** Quits: xriso:#kuro5hin (Forever)

Archive of Scientists' Transcendent Experiences (3.50 / 2) (#333)
by wytcld on Wed Jun 12, 2002 at 03:54:19 PM EST

Great article. Also of interest, Charles Tarts' Archive of Scientists' Transcendent Experiences.

On the less transcendent side, and an example of an experience that doesn't prove anything to anyone else but is hard to integrate into a modern personal worldview, was an event when I was about 13 and turned to what would later be known as the 'dark side of the force.' An adult in authority had betrayed me - not in the Catholic priest way, but still pretty bad. As it happened, I was reading Richard Cavendish's The Black Arts, between which and my young imagination I concocted a ritual in a locked room to gain power over my enemy: At the right time of day and lunar cycle, in the right color room, I drew an outline of a hand, wrote his name on it, tacked it to a dartboard, and threw darts at it while thinking appropriately hateful thoughts. Then I burned the sheet of paper and flushed the ashes down a toilet.

My surprise, at that age when belief still comes easily, wasn't that when I saw him a few days later he had one hand entirely wrapped in bandages, but that I'd really left myself in no position to claim credit for the event, silly me.

Now, if I did deserve credit (which I'd gladly take, it was entirely in justice), that opens so uncomfortable questions, such as: Are villages sometimes right when they take the local witches out and burn or stone them to death, in order to stop a run of callamity?

Is the Universe Really Consistent? | 396 comments (371 topical, 25 editorial, 0 hidden)
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